Wisła Kraków 2:0 Jagiellonia Białystok: xG & match report · Ekstraklasa

Friday, 11/09/2026 at 20:30

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Match report · Ekstraklasa

Wisła Kraków Home 1.68 xG · 24 shots

Jagiellonia Białystok Away 0.24 xG · 6 shots

20 The scoreline reflected the chances

Wisła Kraków were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 49%. They won 2–0. The biggest difference was Jagiellonia Białystok's attack: 0.24 xG against 1.19 projected (−0.95).

Goals

14' Ángel Rodado Wisła Kraków · 0.32 xG chance 1–0
87' Ángel Rodado Wisła Kraków · 0.11 xG chance 2–0

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Wisła Kraków: 49% What happened
Draw: 28%
Jagiellonia Białystok: 24%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 7 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Wisła Kraków 1.72 1.68 -0.04

Jagiellonia Białystok 1.19 0.24 -0.95

Jagiellonia Białystok produced 0.95 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Wisła Kraków Jagiellonia Białystok

Shots: 24; 6
On target: 7; 1
Inside the box: 8; 2
xG per shot: 0.06; 0.04
Open play xG: 1.17; 0.24
Set-piece xG: 0.33; 0.00
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.48 for Wisła Kraków.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

30 shots · 1.74 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Wisła Kraków
Jagiellonia Białystok
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Wisła Kraków

1.82 xG created 1.29 xGA

L 3.61 created, 1.79 conceded against Piast Gliwice
W 1.78 created, 1.49 conceded against Wisła Płock
L 1.69 created, 0.60 conceded against Górnik Zabrze
D 0.86 created, 1.32 conceded against Pogoń Szczecin
W 1.64 created, 1.38 conceded against Wieczysta Kraków
D 1.35 created, 1.14 conceded against MKS Korona Kielce

Jagiellonia Białystok

1.57 xG created 1.46 xGA

W 1.16 created, 0.77 conceded against MKS Korona Kielce
W 0.89 created, 2.01 conceded against Motor Lublin
L 1.08 created, 1.10 conceded against Widzew Łódź
W 4.44 created, 1.24 conceded against Raków Częstochowa
L 0.48 created, 1.78 conceded against Lech Poznań
W 1.39 created, 1.86 conceded against Śląsk Wrocław

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged3 won1 lost

Won
Won
Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Wisła Kraków against Jagiellonia Białystok before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Jagiellonia Białystok at most 1 goal	1.67	+10.1%	Won
Jagiellonia Białystok not to score	4.00	+10.1%	Won
Wisła Kraków to win	2.20	+7.0%	Won
Draw	3.60	+0.0%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Wisła Kraków	48.6%	41.7%	+6.9 pp	2.06
Draw	27.8%	25.5%	+2.3 pp	3.60
Jagiellonia Białystok	23.6%	32.8%	−9.2 pp	4.24

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Wisła Kraków to score	84.6%	81.1%	+3.6 pp	1.18
Wisła Kraków not to score	15.4%	18.9%	−3.6 pp	6.51
Jagiellonia Białystok to score	72.5%	76.6%	−4.1 pp	1.38
Jagiellonia Białystok not to score	27.5%	23.4%	+4.1 pp	3.63
Both teams to score	62.9%	62.5%	+0.4 pp	1.59
Both teams not to score	37.1%	37.5%	−0.4 pp	2.70
Wisła Kraków 2+ goals	53.3%	50.0%	+3.3 pp	1.88
Wisła Kraków at most 1 goal	46.7%	50.0%	−3.3 pp	2.14
Jagiellonia Białystok 2+ goals	33.9%	44.3%	−10.3 pp	2.95
Jagiellonia Białystok at most 1 goal	66.1%	55.7%	+10.3 pp	1.51
Over 1.5 goals	82.8%	81.1%	+1.7 pp	1.21
Under 1.5 goals	17.2%	18.9%	−1.7 pp	5.81
Over 2.5 goals	57.5%	59.9%	−2.4 pp	1.74
Under 2.5 goals	42.5%	40.1%	+2.4 pp	2.35

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Wisła Kraków sample: 7 matches
Jagiellonia Białystok sample: 20 matches
Computed: 9 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 9 hours before kick-off

Warnings

Wisła Kraków has only 7 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.