Radomiak Radom 0:2 Piast Gliwice: xG & match report · Ekstraklasa

Monday, 14/09/2026 at 19:00

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Match report · Ekstraklasa

Radomiak Radom Home 2.33 xG · 23 shots

Piast Gliwice Away 1.79 xG · 14 shots

02 The result went against the chances

Piast Gliwice were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 39%. They won 2–0. The biggest difference was Radomiak Radom's attack: 2.33 xG against 1.32 projected (+1.01). Piast Gliwice produced 1.79 xG against 1.47 projected (+0.32).

Goals

45' Hugo Vallejo Piast Gliwice · 0.20 xG chance 0–1
67' Jakub Łabojko (pen.) Piast Gliwice · 0.82 xG chance 0–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Radomiak Radom: 32%
Draw: 30%
Piast Gliwice: 39% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Radomiak Radom 1.32 2.33 +1.01

Piast Gliwice 1.47 1.79 +0.32

Radomiak Radom produced 1.01 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Radomiak Radom Piast Gliwice

Shots: 23; 14
On target: 8; 4
Inside the box: 20; 10
xG per shot: 0.10; 0.13
Open play xG: 1.42; 0.93
Set-piece xG: 0.89; 0.07
Penalties: 0; 1

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.32 for Radomiak Radom and 1.01 for Piast Gliwice.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

37 shots · 4.13 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Radomiak Radom
Piast Gliwice
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Radomiak Radom

1.29 xG created 1.77 xGA

L 0.73 created, 1.80 conceded against GKS Katowice
L 2.24 created, 2.28 conceded against Górnik Zabrze
L 0.38 created, 1.68 conceded against Legia Warszawa
D 0.78 created, 1.27 conceded against Zagłębie Lubin
W 1.89 created, 2.02 conceded against Cracovia
D 1.69 created, 1.59 conceded against Widzew Łódź

Piast Gliwice

1.26 xG created 1.99 xGA

W 1.79 created, 3.61 conceded against Wisła Kraków
L 1.06 created, 3.12 conceded against Lech Poznań
L 1.16 created, 1.68 conceded against Wieczysta Kraków
D 1.10 created, 0.98 conceded against Legia Warszawa
W 1.57 created, 1.01 conceded against Motor Lublin
W 0.87 created, 1.55 conceded against GKS Katowice

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Radomiak Radom: 1 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged2 won1 lost

Won
Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Radomiak Radom against Piast Gliwice before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Piast Gliwice to win	2.75	+6.4%	Won
Radomiak Radom at most 1 goal	1.73	+5.4%	Won
Draw	3.50	+3.9%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Radomiak Radom	31.6%	39.3%	−7.7 pp	3.16
Draw	29.7%	26.7%	+3.0 pp	3.37
Piast Gliwice	38.7%	34.0%	+4.7 pp	2.59

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Radomiak Radom to score	76.1%	76.6%	−0.5 pp	1.31
Radomiak Radom not to score	23.9%	23.4%	+0.5 pp	4.18
Piast Gliwice to score	79.5%	75.0%	+4.5 pp	1.26
Piast Gliwice not to score	20.5%	25.0%	−4.5 pp	4.89
Both teams to score	62.2%	58.9%	+3.3 pp	1.61
Both teams not to score	37.8%	41.1%	−3.3 pp	2.64
Radomiak Radom 2+ goals	39.0%	46.3%	−7.4 pp	2.57
Radomiak Radom at most 1 goal	61.0%	53.7%	+7.4 pp	1.64
Piast Gliwice 2+ goals	44.4%	42.3%	+2.0 pp	2.25
Piast Gliwice at most 1 goal	55.6%	57.7%	−2.0 pp	1.80
Over 1.5 goals	80.8%	78.3%	+2.5 pp	1.24
Under 1.5 goals	19.2%	21.7%	−2.5 pp	5.20
Over 2.5 goals	54.3%	56.3%	−2.0 pp	1.84
Under 2.5 goals	45.7%	43.7%	+2.0 pp	2.19

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Radomiak Radom sample: 20 matches
Piast Gliwice sample: 20 matches
Computed: 10 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 10 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.