AFC Ajax's attacking and defensive expected goals in Eredivisie 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.
AFC Ajax xG and xGA per match
Every match ↓| Rank | Club | xG per match |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | PSV Eindhoven | 2.87 |
| #2 | Feyenoord | 2.76 |
| #3 | AFC Ajax | 2.65 |
| #4 | AZ Alkmaar | 2.55 |
| #5 | FC Twente | 2.28 |
| #6 | Go Ahead Eagles | 1.91 |
| #7 | Sparta Rotterdam | 1.64 |
| #8 | NEC Nijmegen | 1.60 |
| #9 | FC Groningen | 1.54 |
| #10 | FC Utrecht | 1.41 |
| #11 | SC Cambuur | 1.35 |
| #12 | Excelsior | 1.35 |
| #13 | Willem II Tilburg | 1.29 |
| #14 | SC Heerenveen | 1.26 |
| #15 | SC Telstar | 1.09 |
| #16 | Fortuna Sittard | 0.97 |
| #17 | PEC Zwolle | 0.94 |
| #18 | ADO Den Haag | 0.90 |
- League avg
- 1.69
- Total
- 18.52 7 matches
| Rank | Club | xGA per match |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | FC Twente | 0.75 |
| #2 | Feyenoord | 0.80 |
| #3 | AZ Alkmaar | 0.95 |
| #4 | AFC Ajax | 1.25 |
| #5 | SC Heerenveen | 1.36 |
| #6 | PSV Eindhoven | 1.37 |
| #7 | Excelsior | 1.44 |
| #8 | Go Ahead Eagles | 1.63 |
| #9 | ADO Den Haag | 1.90 |
| #10 | NEC Nijmegen | 1.92 |
| #11 | FC Groningen | 1.93 |
| #12 | SC Cambuur | 2.04 |
| #13 | SC Telstar | 2.05 |
| #14 | PEC Zwolle | 2.06 |
| #15 | Sparta Rotterdam | 2.10 |
| #16 | FC Utrecht | 2.11 |
| #17 | Willem II Tilburg | 2.28 |
| #18 | Fortuna Sittard | 2.42 |
- League avg
- 1.69
- Total
- 8.74 7 matches
| Rank | Club | xGD per match |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | Feyenoord | +1.96 |
| #2 | AZ Alkmaar | +1.60 |
| #3 | FC Twente | +1.53 |
| #4 | PSV Eindhoven | +1.51 |
| #5 | AFC Ajax | +1.40 |
| #6 | Go Ahead Eagles | +0.28 |
| #7 | Excelsior | -0.09 |
| #8 | SC Heerenveen | -0.10 |
| #9 | NEC Nijmegen | -0.32 |
| #10 | FC Groningen | -0.39 |
| #11 | Sparta Rotterdam | -0.46 |
| #12 | SC Cambuur | -0.68 |
| #13 | FC Utrecht | -0.70 |
| #14 | SC Telstar | -0.96 |
| #15 | Willem II Tilburg | -0.99 |
| #16 | ADO Den Haag | -1.00 |
| #17 | PEC Zwolle | -1.12 |
| #18 | Fortuna Sittard | -1.46 |
- League avg
- 0.00
- Total
- +9.78 7 matches
| Rank | Club | xPts per match |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | Feyenoord | 2.49 |
| #2 | FC Twente | 2.43 |
| #3 | AZ Alkmaar | 2.30 |
| #4 | AFC Ajax | 2.20 |
| #5 | PSV Eindhoven | 2.18 |
| #6 | Go Ahead Eagles | 1.59 |
| #7 | Excelsior | 1.31 |
| #8 | FC Groningen | 1.28 |
| #9 | SC Heerenveen | 1.28 |
| #10 | NEC Nijmegen | 1.18 |
| #11 | Sparta Rotterdam | 1.15 |
| #12 | FC Utrecht | 1.14 |
| #13 | SC Cambuur | 0.91 |
| #14 | ADO Den Haag | 0.85 |
| #15 | SC Telstar | 0.79 |
| #16 | Willem II Tilburg | 0.79 |
| #17 | PEC Zwolle | 0.73 |
| #18 | Fortuna Sittard | 0.72 |
- League avg
- 1.41
- Total
- 15.37 vs 14 actual pts
Early-season figures: after 7 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.
What the xG says
AFC Ajax's underlying numbers are among the best in Eredivisie. They rank #5 for xG difference at +1.40 per match, driven by the league's highest shot volume at about average chance quality. Their 21 goals are 2.48 above 18.52 xG, while 14 points are 1.37 below 15.37 xPts. After only 7 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.
Actual vs expected
Select a row to chart it across the season.
Goals minus xG, match by match
AFC Ajax are 2.48 goals above their xG after 7 matches. The gap was widest at +2.99, against Willem II Tilburg on Tue 15/09.
- Goals
- 21
- xG
- 18.52
- Gap
- +2.48
- This match
- Match gap
- Running gap
| Date | Opponent | Goals | xG | Match gap | Running gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 09/08 | PEC Zwolle | 2 | 1.97 | +0.03 | +0.03 |
| Sun 16/08 | SC Heerenveen | 2 | 2.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Sun 30/08 | SC Telstar | 4 | 2.13 | +1.87 | +1.90 |
| Sat 05/09 | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 1.99 | -0.99 | +0.91 |
| Sat 12/09 | Fortuna Sittard | 5 | 4.13 | +0.87 | +1.78 |
| Tue 15/09 | Willem II Tilburg | 5 | 3.79 | +1.21 | +2.99 |
| Sat 19/09 | Excelsior | 2 | 2.51 | -0.51 | +2.48 |
AFC Ajax xG trend
Current form +1.47 npxGD per match
The last 6 matches with xG.
Out-created the opponent in 6 of 7 matches. The only negative was against PSV Eindhoven on Sat 05/09 (-0.52).
- npxG · last 6
- 2.83
- npxGA · last 6
- 1.36
- npxG
- npxGA
- npxGD
- Avg so far
| Date | Opponent | npxG | npxGA | npxGD | Avg so far |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 09/08 | PEC Zwolle | 1.54 | 0.59 | +0.95 | +0.95 |
| Sun 16/08 | SC Heerenveen | 2.15 | 1.36 | +0.79 | +0.87 |
| Sun 30/08 | SC Telstar | 2.43 | 1.13 | +1.30 | +1.01 |
| Sat 05/09 | PSV Eindhoven | 2.03 | 2.55 | -0.52 | +0.63 |
| Sat 12/09 | Fortuna Sittard | 4.18 | 0.71 | +3.47 | +1.20 |
| Tue 15/09 | Willem II Tilburg | 3.79 | 1.58 | +2.21 | +1.37 |
| Sat 19/09 | Excelsior | 2.39 | 0.82 | +1.57 | +1.40 |
Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 2.64 npxG and 1.25 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.
Strength of schedule
- Season so far
- number 17 hardest of 18 in Eredivisie
- −0.25 xG vs league average
- Over 7 league matches
- Last 5
- tied number 15 hardest of 18 in Eredivisie
- −0.21 xG vs league average
- Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures
Season so far
−0.25 xG vs league average · over 7 matches · number 17 hardest of 18
- Excelsior Home −0.16
- Willem II Tilburg Home −0.55
- Fortuna Sittard Away −0.68
- PSV Eindhoven Home +0.84
- SC Telstar Away −0.51
- SC Heerenveen Home −0.17
- PEC Zwolle Away −0.54
Last 5
−0.21 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · tied number 15 hardest of 18
- Excelsior Home −0.16
- Willem II Tilburg Home −0.55
- Fortuna Sittard Away −0.68
- PSV Eindhoven Home +0.84
- SC Telstar Away −0.51
AFC Ajax shots and chance quality
High volume, average quality. AFC Ajax take 24.7 shots a match (league 15.0) at 0.11 npxG a shot (league 0.11), #1 in Eredivisie for volume and #10 for quality. 70% of their shots come from inside the box (league 66%), and set pieces produce 20% of their npxG (league 18%).
Attack
| Rank | Club | shots per match |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | AFC Ajax | 24.7 |
| #2 | Feyenoord | 22.3 |
| #3 | FC Twente | 21.6 |
| #4 | PSV Eindhoven | 21.0 |
| #5 | AZ Alkmaar | 19.4 |
| #6 | SC Heerenveen | 16.0 |
| =7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 15.1 |
| =7 | NEC Nijmegen | 15.1 |
| #9 | FC Groningen | 15.0 |
| #10 | Sparta Rotterdam | 13.1 |
| =11 | ADO Den Haag | 11.9 |
| =11 | SC Cambuur | 11.9 |
| =11 | Willem II Tilburg | 11.9 |
| #14 | Excelsior | 11.3 |
| #15 | FC Utrecht | 10.9 |
| #16 | PEC Zwolle | 10.6 |
| #17 | Fortuna Sittard | 10.1 |
| #18 | SC Telstar | 7.9 |
- League avg
- 15.0
- Total
- 173 shots from 7 matches
| Rank | Club | npxG per shot |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | AZ Alkmaar | 0.13 |
| #2 | Go Ahead Eagles | 0.13 |
| #3 | PSV Eindhoven | 0.13 |
| #4 | Sparta Rotterdam | 0.12 |
| #5 | Excelsior | 0.12 |
| #6 | FC Utrecht | 0.12 |
| #7 | Feyenoord | 0.12 |
| #8 | SC Cambuur | 0.11 |
| #9 | Willem II Tilburg | 0.11 |
| #10 | AFC Ajax | 0.11 |
| #11 | SC Telstar | 0.10 |
| #12 | NEC Nijmegen | 0.10 |
| #13 | FC Groningen | 0.10 |
| #14 | FC Twente | 0.09 |
| #15 | Fortuna Sittard | 0.09 |
| #16 | PEC Zwolle | 0.09 |
| #17 | SC Heerenveen | 0.08 |
| #18 | ADO Den Haag | 0.08 |
- League avg
- 0.11
- Total
- 18.51 npxG from 173 shots
Defence
| Rank | Club | shots per match |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | AZ Alkmaar | 8.1 |
| =2 | AFC Ajax | 9.6 |
| =2 | Feyenoord | 9.6 |
| #4 | FC Twente | 10.0 |
| #5 | PSV Eindhoven | 10.1 |
| #6 | NEC Nijmegen | 11.6 |
| #7 | FC Groningen | 15.1 |
| =8 | SC Cambuur | 15.9 |
| =8 | SC Heerenveen | 15.9 |
| =10 | ADO Den Haag | 16.1 |
| =10 | Excelsior | 16.1 |
| #12 | Go Ahead Eagles | 16.6 |
| #13 | SC Telstar | 17.9 |
| #14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 18.0 |
| #15 | FC Utrecht | 18.6 |
| #16 | Willem II Tilburg | 19.9 |
| #17 | Fortuna Sittard | 20.3 |
| #18 | PEC Zwolle | 20.4 |
- League avg
- 15.0
- Total
- 67 shots allowed from 7 matches
| Rank | Club | npxGA per shot |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | FC Twente | 0.06 |
| #2 | Feyenoord | 0.08 |
| #3 | Excelsior | 0.09 |
| #4 | SC Heerenveen | 0.09 |
| #5 | Go Ahead Eagles | 0.09 |
| #6 | PEC Zwolle | 0.10 |
| #7 | FC Utrecht | 0.10 |
| #8 | SC Telstar | 0.11 |
| #9 | ADO Den Haag | 0.11 |
| #10 | SC Cambuur | 0.11 |
| #11 | Willem II Tilburg | 0.11 |
| #12 | Fortuna Sittard | 0.12 |
| #13 | Sparta Rotterdam | 0.12 |
| #14 | AZ Alkmaar | 0.12 |
| #15 | FC Groningen | 0.12 |
| #16 | AFC Ajax | 0.13 |
| #17 | PSV Eindhoven | 0.13 |
| #18 | NEC Nijmegen | 0.17 |
- League avg
- 0.11
- Total
- 8.74 npxGA from 67 shots
Shot profile
70% inside the box
League avg 66%
From 121 of 173 shots over 7 matches
Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.
72% allowed inside the box
League avg 66%
From 48 of 67 shots allowed over 7 matches
Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.
80% open play · 20% set pieces
League avg 18% set pieces
From 3.7 of 18.4 npxG over 7 matches
Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.
91% open play · 9% set pieces
League avg 18% set pieces
From 0.7 of 8.7 npxG allowed over 7 matches
Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.
AFC Ajax home and away xG
| Measure | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 3 |
| xG / match | 2.57 | 2.74 |
| xGA / match | 1.58 | 0.81 |
| xGD / match | +0.99 | +1.93 |
| xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → | 1.99 | 2.48 |
Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.
Every AFC Ajax match by xG
Away this season
- Matches
- 3
- xG / match
- 2.74
- xGA / match
- 0.81
- xGD / match
- +1.93
- Points
- 9 of 9
Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 4.13. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.
AFC Ajax in Eredivisie
Attack
- xG / match #3 of 18
- Shots / match #1 of 18
- Chance quality #10 of 18
- Home xG #3 of 18
- Away xG #3 of 18
Defence
- xGA / match #4 of 18
- Shots allowed =2 of 18
- Chance quality allowed #16 of 18
About the data
- xG data
- Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
- Derived metrics
- xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
- Model metrics
- xPts is produced by our probability model.