Not confirmed yet: the date can still move, and the kickoff time is set nearer the match.
AZ Alkmaar – AFC Ajax
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- AZ Alkmaar
- 43%
- Draw
- 27%
- AFC Ajax
- 30%
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | AFC Ajax | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.34 | 3.74 | 3.28 |
- Total goals
- 3.28
- Over 2.5 goals
- 66%
- Both teams to score
- 70%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Bookmaker prices appear once the league confirms this match's date and kickoff time. Until then the model's preview above is all there is to compare.
Why the model leans AZ Alkmaar
43% AZ Alkmaar to win
- Attack
- 5th vs 5th
- AZ Alkmaar attack v AFC Ajax defence
- Defence
- 3rd vs 2nd
- AZ Alkmaar defence v AFC Ajax attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.58 vs +1.40
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.78 – 1.50
- AZ Alkmaar v AFC Ajax
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | AZ Alkmaar | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 2.55 · 4th | (better) 2.65 · 3rd |
| xGA / match | (better) 0.95 · 3rd | 1.25 · 4th |
| xGD / match | (better) +1.60 · 2nd | +1.40 · 5th |
| xPts / match | (better) 2.30 · 3rd | 2.20 · 4th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +1.58 | +1.40 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 31% of the model's distribution.
- AZ Alkmaar clean sheet
- 20%
- AZ Alkmaar 2+ goals
- 55%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 34%
- Both teams to score: no
- 30%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 12.0%
- 2:1
- 10.1%
- 1:2
- 8.4%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- AZ Alkmaar sample
- 20 matches
- AFC Ajax sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · AZ Alkmaar
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · AFC Ajax
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.