xgEdge

Expected goals

AZ Alkmaar expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Eredivisie · after 7 matches · updated 1 Oct

AZ Alkmaar's attacking and defensive expected goals in Eredivisie 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

AZ Alkmaar xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
2.55 xG per match
#4/18
Attack (xG per match) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 PSV Eindhoven 2.87
#2 Feyenoord 2.76
#3 AFC Ajax 2.65
#4 AZ Alkmaar 2.55
#5 FC Twente 2.28
#6 Go Ahead Eagles 1.91
#7 Sparta Rotterdam 1.64
#8 NEC Nijmegen 1.60
#9 FC Groningen 1.54
#10 FC Utrecht 1.41
#11 SC Cambuur 1.35
#12 Excelsior 1.35
#13 Willem II Tilburg 1.29
#14 SC Heerenveen 1.26
#15 SC Telstar 1.09
#16 Fortuna Sittard 0.97
#17 PEC Zwolle 0.94
#18 ADO Den Haag 0.90
League avg
1.69
Total
17.85 7 matches
Defence
0.95 xGA per match
#3/18
Defence (xGA per match) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 FC Twente 0.75
#2 Feyenoord 0.80
#3 AZ Alkmaar 0.95
#4 AFC Ajax 1.25
#5 SC Heerenveen 1.36
#6 PSV Eindhoven 1.37
#7 Excelsior 1.44
#8 Go Ahead Eagles 1.63
#9 ADO Den Haag 1.90
#10 NEC Nijmegen 1.92
#11 FC Groningen 1.93
#12 SC Cambuur 2.04
#13 SC Telstar 2.05
#14 PEC Zwolle 2.06
#15 Sparta Rotterdam 2.10
#16 FC Utrecht 2.11
#17 Willem II Tilburg 2.28
#18 Fortuna Sittard 2.42
League avg
1.69
Total
6.67 7 matches
xG difference
+1.60 xGD per match
#2/18
xG difference (xGD per match) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Feyenoord +1.96
#2 AZ Alkmaar +1.60
#3 FC Twente +1.53
#4 PSV Eindhoven +1.51
#5 AFC Ajax +1.40
#6 Go Ahead Eagles +0.28
#7 Excelsior -0.09
#8 SC Heerenveen -0.10
#9 NEC Nijmegen -0.32
#10 FC Groningen -0.39
#11 Sparta Rotterdam -0.46
#12 SC Cambuur -0.68
#13 FC Utrecht -0.70
#14 SC Telstar -0.96
#15 Willem II Tilburg -0.99
#16 ADO Den Haag -1.00
#17 PEC Zwolle -1.12
#18 Fortuna Sittard -1.46
League avg
0.00
Total
+11.18 7 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
2.30 xPts per match
#3/18
Expected points (xPts per match) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Feyenoord 2.49
#2 FC Twente 2.43
#3 AZ Alkmaar 2.30
#4 AFC Ajax 2.20
#5 PSV Eindhoven 2.18
#6 Go Ahead Eagles 1.59
#7 Excelsior 1.31
#8 FC Groningen 1.28
#9 SC Heerenveen 1.28
#10 NEC Nijmegen 1.18
#11 Sparta Rotterdam 1.15
#12 FC Utrecht 1.14
#13 SC Cambuur 0.91
#14 ADO Den Haag 0.85
#15 SC Telstar 0.79
#16 Willem II Tilburg 0.79
#17 PEC Zwolle 0.73
#18 Fortuna Sittard 0.72
League avg
1.41
Total
16.09 vs 19 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 7 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

What the xG says

AZ Alkmaar's underlying numbers are among the best in Eredivisie. They rank #2 for xG difference at +1.60 per match, driven by both high shot volume and the league's best chance quality. Their 18 goals are 0.15 above 17.85 xG, while 19 points are 2.91 above 16.09 xPts. After only 7 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG
18 17.85 +0.15 scored 0.15 more than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
6 6.67 -0.67 conceded 0.67 fewer than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
19 16.09 +2.91 2.91 points above xPts outside normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

AZ Alkmaar are 0.15 goals above their xG after 7 matches. The gap was widest at +2.98, against SC Heerenveen on Sun 06/09.

Goals
18
xG
17.85
Gap
+0.15
Sat 08/08 Sat 15/08 Sat 22/08 Sat 29/08 Sun 06/09 Fri 11/09 Sun 20/09 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 -0.67 +1.23 -1.12 +1.49 +2.98 +1.50 +0.15 -0.67 +1.90 -2.35 +2.61 +1.49 -1.48 -1.35 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
AZ Alkmaar: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sat 08/08 ADO Den Haag 2 2.67 -0.67 -0.67
Sat 15/08 FC Utrecht 4 2.10 +1.90 +1.23
Sat 22/08 Fortuna Sittard 2 4.35 -2.35 -1.12
Sat 29/08 Go Ahead Eagles 5 2.39 +2.61 +1.49
Sun 06/09 SC Heerenveen 3 1.51 +1.49 +2.98
Fri 11/09 Willem II Tilburg 1 2.48 -1.48 +1.50
Sun 20/09 SC Telstar 1 2.35 -1.35 +0.15

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

AZ Alkmaar xG trend

Current form +1.52 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 6 of 7 matches. The only negative was against SC Heerenveen on Sun 06/09 (-0.11).

npxG · last 6
2.52
npxGA · last 6
1.00
-1 0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +1.72 Sat 08/08 +1.10 Sat 15/08 +3.99 Sat 22/08 +0.43 Sat 29/08 -0.11 Sun 06/09 +1.55 Fri 11/09 +2.13 Sun 20/09 +1.54 season avg
AZ Alkmaar: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sat 08/08 ADO Den Haag 2.67 0.95 +1.72 +1.72
Sat 15/08 FC Utrecht 1.93 0.83 +1.10 +1.41
Sat 22/08 Fortuna Sittard 4.43 0.44 +3.99 +2.27
Sat 29/08 Go Ahead Eagles 2.39 1.96 +0.43 +1.81
Sun 06/09 SC Heerenveen 1.51 1.62 -0.11 +1.43
Fri 11/09 Willem II Tilburg 2.48 0.93 +1.55 +1.45
Sun 20/09 SC Telstar 2.35 0.22 +2.13 +1.54

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 2.54 npxG and 0.99 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
number 18 hardest of 18 in Eredivisie
−0.34 xG vs league average
Over 7 league matches
Last 5
number 18 hardest of 18 in Eredivisie
−0.41 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

−0.34 xG vs league average · over 7 matches · number 18 hardest of 18

  1. SC Telstar Home −0.51
  2. Willem II Tilburg Home −0.55
  3. SC Heerenveen Away −0.17
  4. Go Ahead Eagles Home −0.13
  5. Fortuna Sittard Away −0.68
  6. FC Utrecht Away −0.04
  7. ADO Den Haag Home −0.29

Last 5

−0.41 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 18 hardest of 18

  1. SC Telstar Home −0.51
  2. Willem II Tilburg Home −0.55
  3. SC Heerenveen Away −0.17
  4. Go Ahead Eagles Home −0.13
  5. Fortuna Sittard Away −0.68

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

AZ Alkmaar shots and chance quality

High volume, high quality. AZ Alkmaar take 19.4 shots a match (league 15.0) at 0.13 npxG a shot (league 0.11), #5 in Eredivisie for volume and #1 for quality. 65% of their shots come from inside the box (league 66%), and set pieces produce 16% of their npxG (league 18%).

Attack

Shot volume
19.4 shots per match
#5/18
Shot volume (shots per match) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 AFC Ajax 24.7
#2 Feyenoord 22.3
#3 FC Twente 21.6
#4 PSV Eindhoven 21.0
#5 AZ Alkmaar 19.4
#6 SC Heerenveen 16.0
=7 Go Ahead Eagles 15.1
=7 NEC Nijmegen 15.1
#9 FC Groningen 15.0
#10 Sparta Rotterdam 13.1
=11 ADO Den Haag 11.9
=11 SC Cambuur 11.9
=11 Willem II Tilburg 11.9
#14 Excelsior 11.3
#15 FC Utrecht 10.9
#16 PEC Zwolle 10.6
#17 Fortuna Sittard 10.1
#18 SC Telstar 7.9
League avg
15.0
Total
136 shots from 7 matches
Chance quality
0.13 npxG per shot
#1/18
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 AZ Alkmaar 0.13
#2 Go Ahead Eagles 0.13
#3 PSV Eindhoven 0.13
#4 Sparta Rotterdam 0.12
#5 Excelsior 0.12
#6 FC Utrecht 0.12
#7 Feyenoord 0.12
#8 SC Cambuur 0.11
#9 Willem II Tilburg 0.11
#10 AFC Ajax 0.11
#11 SC Telstar 0.10
#12 NEC Nijmegen 0.10
#13 FC Groningen 0.10
#14 FC Twente 0.09
#15 Fortuna Sittard 0.09
#16 PEC Zwolle 0.09
#17 SC Heerenveen 0.08
#18 ADO Den Haag 0.08
League avg
0.11
Total
17.76 npxG from 136 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
8.1 shots per match
#1/18
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 AZ Alkmaar 8.1
=2 AFC Ajax 9.6
=2 Feyenoord 9.6
#4 FC Twente 10.0
#5 PSV Eindhoven 10.1
#6 NEC Nijmegen 11.6
#7 FC Groningen 15.1
=8 SC Cambuur 15.9
=8 SC Heerenveen 15.9
=10 ADO Den Haag 16.1
=10 Excelsior 16.1
#12 Go Ahead Eagles 16.6
#13 SC Telstar 17.9
#14 Sparta Rotterdam 18.0
#15 FC Utrecht 18.6
#16 Willem II Tilburg 19.9
#17 Fortuna Sittard 20.3
#18 PEC Zwolle 20.4
League avg
15.0
Total
57 shots allowed from 7 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.12 npxGA per shot
#14/18
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 FC Twente 0.06
#2 Feyenoord 0.08
#3 Excelsior 0.09
#4 SC Heerenveen 0.09
#5 Go Ahead Eagles 0.09
#6 PEC Zwolle 0.10
#7 FC Utrecht 0.10
#8 SC Telstar 0.11
#9 ADO Den Haag 0.11
#10 SC Cambuur 0.11
#11 Willem II Tilburg 0.11
#12 Fortuna Sittard 0.12
#13 Sparta Rotterdam 0.12
#14 AZ Alkmaar 0.12
#15 FC Groningen 0.12
#16 AFC Ajax 0.13
#17 PSV Eindhoven 0.13
#18 NEC Nijmegen 0.17
League avg
0.11
Total
6.95 npxGA from 57 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

65% inside the box

League avg 66%

From 89 of 136 shots over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

70% allowed inside the box

League avg 66%

From 40 of 57 shots allowed over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG comes from

84% open play · 16% set pieces

League avg 18% set pieces

From 2.8 of 17.7 npxG over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG allowed comes from

72% open play · 28% set pieces

League avg 18% set pieces

From 1.9 of 7.0 npxG allowed over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

AZ Alkmaar home and away xG

AZ Alkmaar per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 4 3
xG / match 2.47 2.65
xGA / match 0.95 0.96
xGD / match +1.52 +1.70
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 2.38 2.19

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every AZ Alkmaar match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

Last 5

Matches
5
xG / match
2.62
xGA / match
0.96
xGD / match
+1.65
Points
13 of 15
  1. Sun 20/09 SC Telstar H xG 2.35 xGA 0.10 xGD +2.25
  2. Fri 11/09 Willem II Tilburg H xG 2.48 xGA 0.93 xGD +1.55
  3. Sun 06/09 SC Heerenveen A Weakest underlying xG 1.51 xGA 1.52 xGD -0.01
  4. Sat 29/08 Go Ahead Eagles H xG 2.39 xGA 1.82 xGD +0.57
  5. Sat 22/08 Fortuna Sittard A Best underlying xG 4.35 xGA 0.44 xGD +3.91

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 4.35. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

AZ Alkmaar in Eredivisie

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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