xgEdge

Expected goals

Fortuna Sittard expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Eredivisie · after 7 matches · updated 4 Oct

Fortuna Sittard's attacking and defensive expected goals in Eredivisie 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

Fortuna Sittard xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
0.97 xG per match
#16/18
Attack (xG per match) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 PSV Eindhoven 2.87
#2 Feyenoord 2.76
#3 AFC Ajax 2.65
#4 AZ Alkmaar 2.55
#5 FC Twente 2.28
#6 Go Ahead Eagles 1.91
#7 Sparta Rotterdam 1.64
#8 NEC Nijmegen 1.60
#9 FC Groningen 1.54
#10 FC Utrecht 1.41
#11 SC Cambuur 1.35
#12 Excelsior 1.35
#13 Willem II Tilburg 1.29
#14 SC Heerenveen 1.26
#15 SC Telstar 1.09
#16 Fortuna Sittard 0.97
#17 PEC Zwolle 0.94
#18 ADO Den Haag 0.90
League avg
1.69
Total
6.77 7 matches
Defence
2.42 xGA per match
#18/18
Defence (xGA per match) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 FC Twente 0.75
#2 Feyenoord 0.80
#3 AZ Alkmaar 0.95
#4 AFC Ajax 1.25
#5 SC Heerenveen 1.36
#6 PSV Eindhoven 1.37
#7 Excelsior 1.44
#8 Go Ahead Eagles 1.63
#9 ADO Den Haag 1.90
#10 NEC Nijmegen 1.92
#11 FC Groningen 1.93
#12 SC Cambuur 2.04
#13 SC Telstar 2.05
#14 PEC Zwolle 2.06
#15 Sparta Rotterdam 2.10
#16 FC Utrecht 2.11
#17 Willem II Tilburg 2.28
#18 Fortuna Sittard 2.42
League avg
1.69
Total
16.96 7 matches
xG difference
-1.46 xGD per match
#18/18
xG difference (xGD per match) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Feyenoord +1.96
#2 AZ Alkmaar +1.60
#3 FC Twente +1.53
#4 PSV Eindhoven +1.51
#5 AFC Ajax +1.40
#6 Go Ahead Eagles +0.28
#7 Excelsior -0.09
#8 SC Heerenveen -0.10
#9 NEC Nijmegen -0.32
#10 FC Groningen -0.39
#11 Sparta Rotterdam -0.46
#12 SC Cambuur -0.68
#13 FC Utrecht -0.70
#14 SC Telstar -0.96
#15 Willem II Tilburg -0.99
#16 ADO Den Haag -1.00
#17 PEC Zwolle -1.12
#18 Fortuna Sittard -1.46
League avg
0.00
Total
-10.19 7 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
0.72 xPts per match
#18/18
Expected points (xPts per match) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Feyenoord 2.49
#2 FC Twente 2.43
#3 AZ Alkmaar 2.30
#4 AFC Ajax 2.20
#5 PSV Eindhoven 2.18
#6 Go Ahead Eagles 1.59
#7 Excelsior 1.31
#8 FC Groningen 1.28
#9 SC Heerenveen 1.28
#10 NEC Nijmegen 1.18
#11 Sparta Rotterdam 1.15
#12 FC Utrecht 1.14
#13 SC Cambuur 0.91
#14 ADO Den Haag 0.85
#15 SC Telstar 0.79
#16 Willem II Tilburg 0.79
#17 PEC Zwolle 0.73
#18 Fortuna Sittard 0.72
League avg
1.41
Total
5.04 vs 13 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 7 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

What the xG says

Fortuna Sittard's underlying numbers are among the weakest in Eredivisie. They rank #18 for xG difference at -1.46 per match, from low shot volume and low chance quality. Their 13 goals are 6.23 above 6.77 xG, while 13 points are 7.96 above 5.04 xPts. After only 7 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG
13 6.77 +6.23 scored 6.23 more than xG far outside normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
14 16.96 -2.96 conceded 2.96 fewer than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
13 5.04 +7.96 7.96 points above xPts far outside normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

Fortuna Sittard are 6.23 goals above their xG after 7 matches. The gap was widest at +6.54, against AFC Ajax on Sat 12/09.

Goals
13
xG
6.77
Gap
+6.23
Sat 08/08 Sat 15/08 Sat 22/08 Fri 28/08 Sun 06/09 Sat 12/09 Sat 19/09 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +1.02 +2.11 +1.67 +3.80 +6.25 +6.54 +6.23 +1.02 +1.09 -0.44 +2.13 +2.45 +0.29 -0.31 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
Fortuna Sittard: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sat 08/08 PSV Eindhoven 2 0.98 +1.02 +1.02
Sat 15/08 SC Cambuur 3 1.91 +1.09 +2.11
Sat 22/08 AZ Alkmaar 0 0.44 -0.44 +1.67
Fri 28/08 FC Groningen 3 0.87 +2.13 +3.80
Sun 06/09 ADO Den Haag 3 0.55 +2.45 +6.25
Sat 12/09 AFC Ajax 1 0.71 +0.29 +6.54
Sat 19/09 Willem II Tilburg 1 1.31 -0.31 +6.23

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

Fortuna Sittard xG trend

Current form -1.45 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 2 of 7 matches. The worst was against AZ Alkmaar on Sat 22/08 (-3.99).

npxG · last 6
0.92
npxGA · last 6
2.37
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 -1.30 Sat 08/08 -0.94 Sat 15/08 -3.99 Sat 22/08 -0.69 Fri 28/08 +0.06 Sun 06/09 -3.47 Sat 12/09 +0.32 Sat 19/09 -1.43 season avg
Fortuna Sittard: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sat 08/08 PSV Eindhoven 1.01 2.31 -1.30 -1.30
Sat 15/08 SC Cambuur 1.59 2.53 -0.94 -1.12
Sat 22/08 AZ Alkmaar 0.44 4.43 -3.99 -2.08
Fri 28/08 FC Groningen 0.88 1.57 -0.69 -1.73
Sun 06/09 ADO Den Haag 0.55 0.49 +0.06 -1.37
Sat 12/09 AFC Ajax 0.71 4.18 -3.47 -1.72
Sat 19/09 Willem II Tilburg 1.33 1.01 +0.32 -1.43

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 0.93 npxG and 2.36 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
number 5 hardest of 18 in Eredivisie
+0.12 xG vs league average
Over 7 league matches
Last 5
tied number 7 hardest of 18 in Eredivisie
+0.06 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

+0.12 xG vs league average · over 7 matches · number 5 hardest of 18

  1. Willem II Tilburg Away −0.55
  2. AFC Ajax Home +0.62
  3. ADO Den Haag Away −0.29
  4. FC Groningen Away −0.04
  5. AZ Alkmaar Home +0.56
  6. SC Cambuur Home −0.29
  7. PSV Eindhoven Away +0.84

Last 5

+0.06 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · tied number 7 hardest of 18

  1. Willem II Tilburg Away −0.55
  2. AFC Ajax Home +0.62
  3. ADO Den Haag Away −0.29
  4. FC Groningen Away −0.04
  5. AZ Alkmaar Home +0.56

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

Fortuna Sittard shots and chance quality

Low volume, low quality. Fortuna Sittard take 10.1 shots a match (league 15.0) at 0.09 npxG a shot (league 0.11), #17 in Eredivisie for volume and #15 for quality. 55% of their shots come from inside the box (league 66%), and set pieces produce 11% of their npxG (league 18%).

Attack

Shot volume
10.1 shots per match
#17/18
Shot volume (shots per match) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 AFC Ajax 24.7
#2 Feyenoord 22.3
#3 FC Twente 21.6
#4 PSV Eindhoven 21.0
#5 AZ Alkmaar 19.4
#6 SC Heerenveen 16.0
=7 Go Ahead Eagles 15.1
=7 NEC Nijmegen 15.1
#9 FC Groningen 15.0
#10 Sparta Rotterdam 13.1
=11 ADO Den Haag 11.9
=11 SC Cambuur 11.9
=11 Willem II Tilburg 11.9
#14 Excelsior 11.3
#15 FC Utrecht 10.9
#16 PEC Zwolle 10.6
#17 Fortuna Sittard 10.1
#18 SC Telstar 7.9
League avg
15.0
Total
71 shots from 7 matches
Chance quality
0.09 npxG per shot
#15/18
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 AZ Alkmaar 0.13
#2 Go Ahead Eagles 0.13
#3 PSV Eindhoven 0.13
#4 Sparta Rotterdam 0.12
#5 Excelsior 0.12
#6 FC Utrecht 0.12
#7 Feyenoord 0.12
#8 SC Cambuur 0.11
#9 Willem II Tilburg 0.11
#10 AFC Ajax 0.11
#11 SC Telstar 0.10
#12 NEC Nijmegen 0.10
#13 FC Groningen 0.10
#14 FC Twente 0.09
#15 Fortuna Sittard 0.09
#16 PEC Zwolle 0.09
#17 SC Heerenveen 0.08
#18 ADO Den Haag 0.08
League avg
0.11
Total
6.51 npxG from 71 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
20.3 shots per match
#17/18
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 AZ Alkmaar 8.1
=2 AFC Ajax 9.6
=2 Feyenoord 9.6
#4 FC Twente 10.0
#5 PSV Eindhoven 10.1
#6 NEC Nijmegen 11.6
#7 FC Groningen 15.1
=8 SC Cambuur 15.9
=8 SC Heerenveen 15.9
=10 ADO Den Haag 16.1
=10 Excelsior 16.1
#12 Go Ahead Eagles 16.6
#13 SC Telstar 17.9
#14 Sparta Rotterdam 18.0
#15 FC Utrecht 18.6
#16 Willem II Tilburg 19.9
#17 Fortuna Sittard 20.3
#18 PEC Zwolle 20.4
League avg
15.0
Total
142 shots allowed from 7 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.12 npxGA per shot
#12/18
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 FC Twente 0.06
#2 Feyenoord 0.08
#3 Excelsior 0.09
#4 SC Heerenveen 0.09
#5 Go Ahead Eagles 0.09
#6 PEC Zwolle 0.10
#7 FC Utrecht 0.10
#8 SC Telstar 0.11
#9 ADO Den Haag 0.11
#10 SC Cambuur 0.11
#11 Willem II Tilburg 0.11
#12 Fortuna Sittard 0.12
#13 Sparta Rotterdam 0.12
#14 AZ Alkmaar 0.12
#15 FC Groningen 0.12
#16 AFC Ajax 0.13
#17 PSV Eindhoven 0.13
#18 NEC Nijmegen 0.17
League avg
0.11
Total
16.52 npxGA from 142 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

55% inside the box

League avg 66%

From 39 of 71 shots over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

75% allowed inside the box

League avg 66%

From 106 of 142 shots allowed over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG comes from

89% open play · 11% set pieces

League avg 18% set pieces

From 0.7 of 6.4 npxG over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG allowed comes from

78% open play · 22% set pieces

League avg 18% set pieces

From 3.7 of 16.3 npxG allowed over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

Fortuna Sittard home and away xG

Fortuna Sittard per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 3 4
xG / match 1.02 0.93
xGA / match 3.66 1.49
xGD / match -2.64 -0.57
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 0.37 0.99

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every Fortuna Sittard match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

At home this season

Matches
3
xG / match
1.02
xGA / match
3.66
xGD / match
-2.64
Points
3 of 9
  1. Sat 12/09 AFC Ajax H xG 0.71 xGA 4.13 xGD -3.42
  2. Sat 22/08 AZ Alkmaar H xG 0.44 xGA 4.35 xGD -3.91
  3. Sat 15/08 SC Cambuur H xG 1.91 xGA 2.51 xGD -0.60

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 4.35. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

Fortuna Sittard in Eredivisie

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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