xgEdge

Expected goals

PSV Eindhoven expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Eredivisie · after 7 matches · updated 1 Oct

PSV Eindhoven's attacking and defensive expected goals in Eredivisie 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

PSV Eindhoven xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
2.87 xG per match
#1/18
Attack (xG per match) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 PSV Eindhoven 2.87
#2 Feyenoord 2.76
#3 AFC Ajax 2.65
#4 AZ Alkmaar 2.55
#5 FC Twente 2.28
#6 Go Ahead Eagles 1.91
#7 Sparta Rotterdam 1.64
#8 NEC Nijmegen 1.60
#9 FC Groningen 1.54
#10 FC Utrecht 1.41
#11 SC Cambuur 1.35
#12 Excelsior 1.35
#13 Willem II Tilburg 1.29
#14 SC Heerenveen 1.26
#15 SC Telstar 1.09
#16 Fortuna Sittard 0.97
#17 PEC Zwolle 0.94
#18 ADO Den Haag 0.90
League avg
1.69
Total
20.12 7 matches
Defence
1.37 xGA per match
#6/18
Defence (xGA per match) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 FC Twente 0.75
#2 Feyenoord 0.80
#3 AZ Alkmaar 0.95
#4 AFC Ajax 1.25
#5 SC Heerenveen 1.36
#6 PSV Eindhoven 1.37
#7 Excelsior 1.44
#8 Go Ahead Eagles 1.63
#9 ADO Den Haag 1.90
#10 NEC Nijmegen 1.92
#11 FC Groningen 1.93
#12 SC Cambuur 2.04
#13 SC Telstar 2.05
#14 PEC Zwolle 2.06
#15 Sparta Rotterdam 2.10
#16 FC Utrecht 2.11
#17 Willem II Tilburg 2.28
#18 Fortuna Sittard 2.42
League avg
1.69
Total
9.56 7 matches
xG difference
+1.51 xGD per match
#4/18
xG difference (xGD per match) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Feyenoord +1.96
#2 AZ Alkmaar +1.60
#3 FC Twente +1.53
#4 PSV Eindhoven +1.51
#5 AFC Ajax +1.40
#6 Go Ahead Eagles +0.28
#7 Excelsior -0.09
#8 SC Heerenveen -0.10
#9 NEC Nijmegen -0.32
#10 FC Groningen -0.39
#11 Sparta Rotterdam -0.46
#12 SC Cambuur -0.68
#13 FC Utrecht -0.70
#14 SC Telstar -0.96
#15 Willem II Tilburg -0.99
#16 ADO Den Haag -1.00
#17 PEC Zwolle -1.12
#18 Fortuna Sittard -1.46
League avg
0.00
Total
+10.56 7 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
2.18 xPts per match
#5/18
Expected points (xPts per match) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Feyenoord 2.49
#2 FC Twente 2.43
#3 AZ Alkmaar 2.30
#4 AFC Ajax 2.20
#5 PSV Eindhoven 2.18
#6 Go Ahead Eagles 1.59
#7 Excelsior 1.31
#8 FC Groningen 1.28
#9 SC Heerenveen 1.28
#10 NEC Nijmegen 1.18
#11 Sparta Rotterdam 1.15
#12 FC Utrecht 1.14
#13 SC Cambuur 0.91
#14 ADO Den Haag 0.85
#15 SC Telstar 0.79
#16 Willem II Tilburg 0.79
#17 PEC Zwolle 0.73
#18 Fortuna Sittard 0.72
League avg
1.41
Total
15.23 vs 16 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 7 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

What the xG says

PSV Eindhoven's underlying numbers are among the best in Eredivisie. They rank #4 for xG difference at +1.51 per match, driven by both high shot volume and elite chance quality. Their 24 goals are 3.88 above 20.12 xG, while 16 points are 0.77 above 15.23 xPts. After only 7 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 1.69 xG from penalties
24 20.12 +3.88 scored 3.88 more than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
10 9.56 +0.44 conceded 0.44 more than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
16 15.23 +0.77 0.77 points above xPts within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

PSV Eindhoven are 3.88 goals above their xG after 7 matches.

Goals
24
xG
20.12
Gap
+3.88
Sat 08/08 Sat 15/08 Sun 23/08 Sun 30/08 Sat 05/09 Sun 13/09 Sun 20/09 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +4 -0.56 -0.80 -0.22 +2.20 +2.65 +2.90 +3.88 -0.56 -0.24 +0.58 +2.42 +0.45 +0.25 +0.98 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
PSV Eindhoven: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sat 08/08 Fortuna Sittard 2 2.56 -0.56 -0.56
Sat 15/08 Excelsior 2 2.24 -0.24 -0.80
Sun 23/08 FC Groningen 5 4.42 +0.58 -0.22
Sun 30/08 FC Utrecht 6 3.58 +2.42 +2.20
Sat 05/09 AFC Ajax 3 2.55 +0.45 +2.65
Sun 13/09 Sparta Rotterdam 4 3.75 +0.25 +2.90
Sun 20/09 FC Twente 2 1.02 +0.98 +3.88

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

PSV Eindhoven xG trend

Current form +1.29 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 6 of 7 matches. The only negative was against FC Twente on Sun 20/09 (-1.55).

npxG · last 6
2.69
npxGA · last 6
1.40
-2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +1.30 Sat 08/08 +1.89 Sat 15/08 +2.79 Sun 23/08 +2.50 Sun 30/08 +0.52 Sat 05/09 +1.58 Sun 13/09 -1.55 Sun 20/09 +1.29 season avg
PSV Eindhoven: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sat 08/08 Fortuna Sittard 2.31 1.01 +1.30 +1.30
Sat 15/08 Excelsior 2.21 0.32 +1.89 +1.59
Sun 23/08 FC Groningen 3.88 1.09 +2.79 +1.99
Sun 30/08 FC Utrecht 2.80 0.30 +2.50 +2.12
Sat 05/09 AFC Ajax 2.55 2.03 +0.52 +1.80
Sun 13/09 Sparta Rotterdam 3.87 2.29 +1.58 +1.76
Sun 20/09 FC Twente 0.81 2.36 -1.55 +1.29

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 2.63 npxG and 1.34 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
tied number 10 hardest of 18 in Eredivisie
+0.01 xG vs league average
Over 7 league matches
Last 5
tied number 3 hardest of 18 in Eredivisie
+0.18 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

+0.01 xG vs league average · over 7 matches · tied number 10 hardest of 18

  1. FC Twente Away +0.71
  2. Sparta Rotterdam Home −0.34
  3. AFC Ajax Away +0.62
  4. FC Utrecht Away −0.04
  5. FC Groningen Home −0.04
  6. Excelsior Away −0.16
  7. Fortuna Sittard Home −0.68

Last 5

+0.18 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · tied number 3 hardest of 18

  1. FC Twente Away +0.71
  2. Sparta Rotterdam Home −0.34
  3. AFC Ajax Away +0.62
  4. FC Utrecht Away −0.04
  5. FC Groningen Home −0.04

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

PSV Eindhoven shots and chance quality

High volume, high quality. PSV Eindhoven take 21.0 shots a match (league 15.0) at 0.13 npxG a shot (league 0.11), #4 in Eredivisie for volume and #3 for quality. 69% of their shots come from inside the box (league 66%), and set pieces produce 13% of their npxG (league 18%).

Attack

Shot volume
21.0 shots per match
#4/18
Shot volume (shots per match) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 AFC Ajax 24.7
#2 Feyenoord 22.3
#3 FC Twente 21.6
#4 PSV Eindhoven 21.0
#5 AZ Alkmaar 19.4
#6 SC Heerenveen 16.0
=7 Go Ahead Eagles 15.1
=7 NEC Nijmegen 15.1
#9 FC Groningen 15.0
#10 Sparta Rotterdam 13.1
=11 ADO Den Haag 11.9
=11 SC Cambuur 11.9
=11 Willem II Tilburg 11.9
#14 Excelsior 11.3
#15 FC Utrecht 10.9
#16 PEC Zwolle 10.6
#17 Fortuna Sittard 10.1
#18 SC Telstar 7.9
League avg
15.0
Total
147 shots from 7 matches
Chance quality
0.13 npxG per shot
#3/18
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 AZ Alkmaar 0.13
#2 Go Ahead Eagles 0.13
#3 PSV Eindhoven 0.13
#4 Sparta Rotterdam 0.12
#5 Excelsior 0.12
#6 FC Utrecht 0.12
#7 Feyenoord 0.12
#8 SC Cambuur 0.11
#9 Willem II Tilburg 0.11
#10 AFC Ajax 0.11
#11 SC Telstar 0.10
#12 NEC Nijmegen 0.10
#13 FC Groningen 0.10
#14 FC Twente 0.09
#15 Fortuna Sittard 0.09
#16 PEC Zwolle 0.09
#17 SC Heerenveen 0.08
#18 ADO Den Haag 0.08
League avg
0.11
Total
18.43 npxG from 147 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
10.1 shots per match
#5/18
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 AZ Alkmaar 8.1
=2 AFC Ajax 9.6
=2 Feyenoord 9.6
#4 FC Twente 10.0
#5 PSV Eindhoven 10.1
#6 NEC Nijmegen 11.6
#7 FC Groningen 15.1
=8 SC Cambuur 15.9
=8 SC Heerenveen 15.9
=10 ADO Den Haag 16.1
=10 Excelsior 16.1
#12 Go Ahead Eagles 16.6
#13 SC Telstar 17.9
#14 Sparta Rotterdam 18.0
#15 FC Utrecht 18.6
#16 Willem II Tilburg 19.9
#17 Fortuna Sittard 20.3
#18 PEC Zwolle 20.4
League avg
15.0
Total
71 shots allowed from 7 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.13 npxGA per shot
#17/18
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 FC Twente 0.06
#2 Feyenoord 0.08
#3 Excelsior 0.09
#4 SC Heerenveen 0.09
#5 Go Ahead Eagles 0.09
#6 PEC Zwolle 0.10
#7 FC Utrecht 0.10
#8 SC Telstar 0.11
#9 ADO Den Haag 0.11
#10 SC Cambuur 0.11
#11 Willem II Tilburg 0.11
#12 Fortuna Sittard 0.12
#13 Sparta Rotterdam 0.12
#14 AZ Alkmaar 0.12
#15 FC Groningen 0.12
#16 AFC Ajax 0.13
#17 PSV Eindhoven 0.13
#18 NEC Nijmegen 0.17
League avg
0.11
Total
9.40 npxGA from 71 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

69% inside the box

League avg 66%

From 102 of 147 shots over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

69% allowed inside the box

League avg 66%

From 49 of 71 shots allowed over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG comes from

87% open play · 13% set pieces

League avg 18% set pieces

From 2.5 of 18.3 npxG over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG allowed comes from

80% open play · 20% set pieces

League avg 18% set pieces

From 1.9 of 9.5 npxG allowed over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

PSV Eindhoven home and away xG

PSV Eindhoven per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 3 4
xG / match 3.58 2.35
xGA / match 1.45 1.30
xGD / match +2.12 +1.05
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 2.49 1.94

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every PSV Eindhoven match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

Last 5

Matches
5
xG / match
3.06
xGA / match
1.61
xGD / match
+1.45
Points
12 of 15
  1. Sun 20/09 FC Twente A Weakest underlying xG 1.02 xGA 2.40 xGD -1.38
  2. Sun 13/09 Sparta Rotterdam H xG 3.75 xGA 2.29 xGD +1.46
  3. Sat 05/09 AFC Ajax A xG 2.55 xGA 1.99 xGD +0.56
  4. Sun 30/08 FC Utrecht A xG 3.58 P xGA 0.30 xGD +3.28
  5. Sun 23/08 FC Groningen H Best underlying xG 4.42 P xGA 1.09 xGD +3.33

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 4.42. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

PSV Eindhoven in Eredivisie

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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