xgEdge

Expected goals

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

HNL · after 8 matches · updated 1 Oct

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb's attacking and defensive expected goals in HNL 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.05 xG per match
#7/10
Attack (xG per match) across HNL, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 GNK Dinamo Zagreb 2.24
#2 HNK Rijeka 1.65
#3 HNK Hajduk Split 1.52
#4 NK Osijek 1.51
#5 NK Istra 1961 1.44
#6 NK Varaždin 1.41
#7 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1.05
#8 NK Slaven Belupo 0.93
#9 HNK Gorica 0.87
#10 NK Rudeš 0.60
League avg
1.31
Total
8.40 8 matches
Defence
1.84 xGA per match
#9/10
Defence (xGA per match) across HNL, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 HNK Hajduk Split 0.74
#2 HNK Rijeka 0.77
#3 NK Varaždin 0.88
#4 GNK Dinamo Zagreb 0.91
#5 NK Istra 1961 1.26
#6 NK Osijek 1.28
#7 HNK Gorica 1.37
#8 NK Slaven Belupo 1.68
#9 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1.84
#10 NK Rudeš 2.20
League avg
1.31
Total
14.72 8 matches
xG difference
-0.79 xGD per match
#9/10
xG difference (xGD per match) across HNL, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 GNK Dinamo Zagreb +1.32
#2 HNK Rijeka +0.88
#3 HNK Hajduk Split +0.78
#4 NK Varaždin +0.53
#5 NK Osijek +0.23
#6 NK Istra 1961 +0.19
#7 HNK Gorica -0.50
#8 NK Slaven Belupo -0.76
#9 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb -0.79
#10 NK Rudeš -1.61
League avg
0.00
Total
-6.32 8 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
0.82 xPts per match
#9/10
Expected points (xPts per match) across HNL, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 GNK Dinamo Zagreb 2.23
#2 HNK Rijeka 1.96
#3 HNK Hajduk Split 1.93
#4 NK Varaždin 1.80
#5 NK Osijek 1.53
#6 NK Istra 1961 1.45
#7 HNK Gorica 0.95
#8 NK Slaven Belupo 0.93
#9 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0.82
#10 NK Rudeš 0.45
League avg
1.39
Total
6.54 vs 7 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 8 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

What the xG says

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb's underlying numbers are among the weakest in HNL. They rank #9 for xG difference at -0.79 per match, built on elite chance quality rather than low shot volume. Their 11 goals are 2.60 above 8.40 xG, while 7 points are 0.46 above 6.54 xPts. After only 8 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG
11 8.40 +2.60 scored 2.60 more than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
16 14.72 +1.28 conceded 1.28 more than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
7 6.54 +0.46 0.46 points above xPts within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb are 2.60 goals above their xG after 8 matches. The gap was widest at +3.71, against HNK Gorica on Sat 08/08.

Goals
11
xG
8.40
Gap
+2.60
Sat 01/08 Sat 08/08 Sat 15/08 Fri 21/08 Mon 31/08 Sun 06/09 Sat 12/09 Sun 20/09 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +1.84 +3.71 +2.79 +2.76 +2.36 +1.41 +2.02 +2.60 +1.84 +1.87 -0.92 -0.03 -0.40 -0.95 +0.61 +0.58 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sat 01/08 NK Istra 1961 3 1.16 +1.84 +1.84
Sat 08/08 HNK Gorica 3 1.13 +1.87 +3.71
Sat 15/08 NK Osijek 0 0.92 -0.92 +2.79
Fri 21/08 NK Rudeš 1 1.03 -0.03 +2.76
Mon 31/08 HNK Hajduk Split 0 0.40 -0.40 +2.36
Sun 06/09 NK Slaven Belupo 1 1.95 -0.95 +1.41
Sat 12/09 HNK Rijeka 1 0.39 +0.61 +2.02
Sun 20/09 GNK Dinamo Zagreb 2 1.42 +0.58 +2.60

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking → Compare with every club in Europe →

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb xG trend

Current form -0.83 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 1 of 8 matches. The worst was against HNK Hajduk Split on Mon 31/08 (-1.79).

npxG · last 6
0.99
npxGA · last 6
1.82
-2 -1 0 +1 -1.45 Sat 01/08 -0.28 Sat 08/08 -0.74 Sat 15/08 -0.66 Fri 21/08 -1.79 Mon 31/08 +0.32 Sun 06/09 -1.62 Sat 12/09 -0.46 Sun 20/09 -0.84 season avg
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sat 01/08 NK Istra 1961 0.93 2.38 -1.45 -1.45
Sat 08/08 HNK Gorica 1.24 1.52 -0.28 -0.87
Sat 15/08 NK Osijek 0.97 1.71 -0.74 -0.82
Fri 21/08 NK Rudeš 1.03 1.69 -0.66 -0.78
Mon 31/08 HNK Hajduk Split 0.40 2.19 -1.79 -0.98
Sun 06/09 NK Slaven Belupo 1.73 1.41 +0.32 -0.77
Sat 12/09 HNK Rijeka 0.39 2.01 -1.62 -0.89
Sun 20/09 GNK Dinamo Zagreb 1.42 1.88 -0.46 -0.84

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.01 npxG and 1.85 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
tied number 3 hardest of 10 in HNL
+0.03 xG vs league average
Over 8 league matches
Last 5
number 3 hardest of 10 in HNL
+0.12 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

+0.03 xG vs league average · over 8 matches · tied number 3 hardest of 10

  1. GNK Dinamo Zagreb Away +0.52
  2. HNK Rijeka Home +0.55
  3. NK Slaven Belupo Away −0.33
  4. HNK Hajduk Split Away +0.38
  5. NK Rudeš Away −0.51
  6. NK Osijek Away +0.18
  7. HNK Gorica Home −0.34
  8. NK Istra 1961 Away −0.20

Last 5

+0.12 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 3 hardest of 10

  1. GNK Dinamo Zagreb Away +0.52
  2. HNK Rijeka Home +0.55
  3. NK Slaven Belupo Away −0.33
  4. HNK Hajduk Split Away +0.38
  5. NK Rudeš Away −0.51

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb shots and chance quality

Low volume, high quality. NK Lokomotiva Zagreb take 9.9 shots a match (league 13.7) at 0.10 npxG a shot (league 0.09), =8 in HNL for volume and #2 for quality. 72% of their shots come from inside the box (league 64%), and set pieces produce 27% of their npxG (league 21%).

Attack

Shot volume
9.9 shots per match
=8/10
Shot volume (shots per match) across HNL, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 GNK Dinamo Zagreb 19.6
#2 NK Osijek 17.6
#3 HNK Rijeka 17.6
#4 HNK Hajduk Split 15.5
#5 NK Varaždin 14.1
#6 NK Istra 1961 13.0
#7 NK Slaven Belupo 11.5
=8 HNK Gorica 9.9
=8 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 9.9
#10 NK Rudeš 9.1
League avg
13.7
Total
79 shots from 8 matches
Chance quality
0.10 npxG per shot
#2/10
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across HNL, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 GNK Dinamo Zagreb 0.10
#2 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0.10
#3 NK Istra 1961 0.10
#4 HNK Rijeka 0.09
#5 NK Varaždin 0.09
#6 HNK Hajduk Split 0.09
#7 NK Osijek 0.08
#8 HNK Gorica 0.07
#9 NK Slaven Belupo 0.07
#10 NK Rudeš 0.06
League avg
0.09
Total
8.11 npxG from 79 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
20.8 shots per match
#10/10
Shots allowed (shots per match) across HNL, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 HNK Hajduk Split 7.5
#2 HNK Rijeka 7.9
#3 GNK Dinamo Zagreb 9.1
#4 NK Varaždin 12.1
#5 NK Osijek 12.6
#6 NK Istra 1961 14.6
#7 NK Slaven Belupo 16.5
#8 HNK Gorica 16.6
#9 NK Rudeš 17.5
#10 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 20.8
League avg
13.7
Total
166 shots allowed from 8 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.09 npxGA per shot
#6/10
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across HNL, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 NK Varaždin 0.06
#2 HNK Rijeka 0.08
#3 NK Istra 1961 0.08
#4 HNK Gorica 0.08
#5 HNK Hajduk Split 0.09
#6 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0.09
#7 NK Osijek 0.09
#8 NK Rudeš 0.10
#9 NK Slaven Belupo 0.10
#10 GNK Dinamo Zagreb 0.10
League avg
0.09
Total
14.79 npxGA from 166 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

72% inside the box

League avg 64%

From 57 of 79 shots over 8 matches

Early-season figure: after 8 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

66% allowed inside the box

League avg 64%

From 110 of 166 shots allowed over 8 matches

Early-season figure: after 8 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG comes from

73% open play · 27% set pieces

League avg 21% set pieces

From 2.2 of 8.1 npxG over 8 matches

Early-season figure: after 8 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG allowed comes from

76% open play · 24% set pieces

League avg 21% set pieces

From 3.5 of 14.9 npxG allowed over 8 matches

Early-season figure: after 8 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb home and away xG

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home only 2 matches with xG Away
Matches 2 6
xG / match 0.76 1.15
xGA / match 1.78 1.86
xGD / match -1.02 -0.71
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 0.64 0.88

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every NK Lokomotiva Zagreb match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

Last 5

Matches
5
xG / match
1.04
xGA / match
1.83
xGD / match
-0.79
Points
1 of 15
  1. Sun 20/09 GNK Dinamo Zagreb A xG 1.42 xGA 1.88 xGD -0.46
  2. Sat 12/09 HNK Rijeka H xG 0.39 xGA 2.01 xGD -1.62
  3. Sun 06/09 NK Slaven Belupo A Best underlying xG 1.95 xGA 1.37 xGD +0.58
  4. Mon 31/08 HNK Hajduk Split A Weakest underlying xG 0.40 xGA 2.18 xGD -1.78
  5. Fri 21/08 NK Rudeš A xG 1.03 xGA 1.69 xGD -0.66

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.00. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb in HNL

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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