Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 17:00
20d 12h to kick-offHNK Gorica – NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Model updated 4 October, 03:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- HNK Gorica
- 40%
- Draw
- 33%
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- 27%
| HNK Gorica | Draw | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.51 | 3.07 | 3.64 |
- Total goals
- 2.33
- Over 2.5 goals
- 42%
- Both teams to score
- 53%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans HNK Gorica
40% HNK Gorica to win
- Attack
- 9th vs 10th
- HNK Gorica attack v NK Lokomotiva Zagreb defence
- Defence
- 6th vs 7th
- HNK Gorica defence v NK Lokomotiva Zagreb attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.42 vs -0.79
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.28 – 1.04
- HNK Gorica v NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | HNK Gorica | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.87 · 9th | (better) 1.05 · 7th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.37 · 7th | 1.84 · 9th |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.50 · 7th | -0.79 · 9th |
| xPts / match | (better) 0.95 · 7th | 0.82 · 9th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.42 | -0.79 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 37% of the model's distribution.
- HNK Gorica clean sheet
- 32%
- HNK Gorica 2+ goals
- 37%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 58%
- Both teams to score: no
- 47%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.8%
- 1:0
- 10.2%
- 0:0
- 10.0%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- HNK Gorica sample
- 20 matches
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · HNK Gorica
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- 6 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 03:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.