Saturday, 07/11/2026 at 16:00
33d 17h to kick-offKVC Westerlo – RC Sporting Charleroi
Model updated 4 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- KVC Westerlo
- 33%
- Draw
- 29%
- RC Sporting Charleroi
- 38%
| KVC Westerlo | Draw | RC Sporting Charleroi | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.06 | 3.41 | 2.63 |
- Total goals
- 2.87
- Over 2.5 goals
- 56%
- Both teams to score
- 64%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans RC Sporting Charleroi
38% RC Sporting Charleroi to win
- Attack
- 6th vs 13th
- RC Sporting Charleroi attack v KVC Westerlo defence
- Defence
- 3rd vs 8th
- RC Sporting Charleroi defence v KVC Westerlo attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.69 vs -0.26
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.38 – 1.49
- KVC Westerlo v RC Sporting Charleroi
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | KVC Westerlo | RC Sporting Charleroi |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.45 · 9th | (better) 1.91 · 3rd |
| xGA / match | 1.81 · 13th | (better) 1.06 · 4th |
| xGD / match | -0.37 · 13th | (better) +0.86 · 3rd |
| xPts / match | 1.24 · 11th | (better) 2.02 · 1st |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.25 | (better) +0.69 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- RC Sporting Charleroi clean sheet
- 22%
- RC Sporting Charleroi 2+ goals
- 45%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 44%
- Both teams to score: no
- 36%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.4%
- 1:2
- 10.0%
- 2:1
- 9.2%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- KVC Westerlo sample
- 20 matches
- RC Sporting Charleroi sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · KVC Westerlo
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · RC Sporting Charleroi
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.