Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 16:00
20d 14h to kick-offRoyal Antwerp FC – RC Sporting Charleroi
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Royal Antwerp FC
- 29%
- Draw
- 29%
- RC Sporting Charleroi
- 42%
| Royal Antwerp FC | Draw | RC Sporting Charleroi | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.42 | 3.48 | 2.38 |
- Total goals
- 2.91
- Over 2.5 goals
- 57%
- Both teams to score
- 64%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans RC Sporting Charleroi
42% RC Sporting Charleroi to win
- Attack
- 6th vs 18th
- RC Sporting Charleroi attack v Royal Antwerp FC defence
- Defence
- 3rd vs 10th
- RC Sporting Charleroi defence v Royal Antwerp FC attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.69 vs -1.33
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.32 – 1.59
- Royal Antwerp FC v RC Sporting Charleroi
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Royal Antwerp FC | RC Sporting Charleroi |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.34 · 10th | (better) 1.91 · 3rd |
| xGA / match | 2.30 · 18th | (better) 1.06 · 4th |
| xGD / match | -0.97 · 18th | (better) +0.86 · 3rd |
| xPts / match | 1.00 · 14th | (better) 2.02 · 1st |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -1.33 | (better) +0.69 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 33% of the model's distribution.
- RC Sporting Charleroi clean sheet
- 24%
- RC Sporting Charleroi 2+ goals
- 49%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 43%
- Both teams to score: no
- 36%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.0%
- 1:2
- 10.5%
- 2:1
- 8.5%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Royal Antwerp FC sample
- 20 matches
- RC Sporting Charleroi sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Royal Antwerp FC
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · RC Sporting Charleroi
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.