Sunday, 13/09/2026 at 13:30
Full timeClub Brugge KV 3:1 Royal Antwerp FC
Club Brugge KV were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 67%. They won 3–1. The biggest difference was Royal Antwerp FC's attack: 2.09 xG against 1.08 projected (+1.01). Club Brugge KV produced 2.94 xG against 2.43 projected (+0.51).
Goals
- 13' Hugo Vetlesen (pen.) Club Brugge KV · 0.82 xG chance 1–0
- 19' Snayder Porozo Royal Antwerp FC · 1.00 xG chance 1–1
- 50' Hugo Vetlesen Club Brugge KV · 0.19 xG chance 2–1
- 78' Jan Virgili Club Brugge KV · 0.02 xG chance 3–1
The model against the result
- Club Brugge KV
- 67% What happened
- Draw
- 20%
- Royal Antwerp FC
- 13%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Royal Antwerp FC produced 1.01 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 23
- 17
- On target
- 9
- 5
- Inside the box
- 20
- 11
- xG per shot
- 0.13
- 0.13
- Open play xG
- 1.51
- 1.62
- Set-piece xG
- 0.62
- 0.58
- Penalties
- 1
- 0
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.16 for Club Brugge KV and 2.17 for Royal Antwerp FC.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
40 shots · 5.15 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Club Brugge KV
- Royal Antwerp FC
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
2.16 xG created 0.97 xGA
- W 2.91 created, 1.42 conceded against KAA Gent
- W 3.85 created, 0.86 conceded against KV Kortrijk
- W 2.92 created, 0.72 conceded against Oud-Heverlee Leuven
- W 1.83 created, 0.76 conceded against Cercle Brugge
- L 0.65 created, 1.38 conceded against KAA Gent
- W 0.80 created, 0.65 conceded against Lommel SK
1.49 xG created 1.71 xGA
- W 2.10 created, 0.43 conceded against KVC Westerlo
- W 2.20 created, 0.96 conceded against SK Beveren
- W 1.19 created, 0.77 conceded against KV Kortrijk
- D 1.86 created, 1.30 conceded against KRC Genk
- L 0.77 created, 3.38 conceded against Sint-Truidense VV
- L 0.83 created, 3.42 conceded against Standard Liège
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
6 opportunities flagged2 won4 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Royal Antwerp FC 2+ goals | 4.33 | +28.8% | Lost |
| Royal Antwerp FC to win | 10.00 | +25.6% | Lost |
| Draw | 6.00 | +20.8% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.80 | +17.5% | Won |
| Royal Antwerp FC to score | 1.67 | +15.4% | Won |
| Club Brugge KV at most 1 goal | 3.75 | +4.0% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Brugge KV | 67.3% | 75.4% | −8.1 pp | 1.49 |
| Draw | 20.1% | 15.4% | +4.8 pp | 4.97 |
| Royal Antwerp FC | 12.6% | 9.2% | +3.3 pp | 7.96 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Brugge KV to score | 92.8% | 92.6% | +0.2 pp | 1.08 |
| Club Brugge KV not to score | 7.2% | 7.4% | −0.2 pp | 13.93 |
| Royal Antwerp FC to score | 69.2% | 55.7% | +13.5 pp | 1.44 |
| Royal Antwerp FC not to score | 30.8% | 44.3% | −13.5 pp | 3.25 |
| Both teams to score | 65.3% | 52.0% | +13.3 pp | 1.53 |
| Both teams not to score | 34.7% | 48.0% | −13.3 pp | 2.88 |
| Club Brugge KV 2+ goals | 72.3% | 75.0% | −2.7 pp | 1.38 |
| Club Brugge KV at most 1 goal | 27.7% | 25.0% | +2.7 pp | 3.61 |
| Royal Antwerp FC 2+ goals | 29.7% | 21.7% | +8.0 pp | 3.36 |
| Royal Antwerp FC at most 1 goal | 70.3% | 78.3% | −8.0 pp | 1.42 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 89.7% | 86.4% | +3.3 pp | 1.12 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 10.3% | 13.6% | −3.3 pp | 9.69 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70.5% | 69.4% | +1.0 pp | 1.42 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 29.5% | 30.6% | −1.0 pp | 3.38 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Club Brugge KV sample
- 20 matches
- Royal Antwerp FC sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 3 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 3 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.