Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 13:30
Full timeRoyal Antwerp FC 0:2 Royale Union Saint-Gilloise
Royale Union Saint-Gilloise were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 45%. They won 2–0. The biggest difference was Royale Union Saint-Gilloise's attack: 3.34 xG against 1.59 projected (+1.75). Royal Antwerp FC produced 0.41 xG against 1.20 projected (−0.79).
Goals
- 51' Mateo Biondic Royale Union Saint-Gilloise · 0.10 xG chance 0–1
- 78' Denzel De Roeve Royale Union Saint-Gilloise · 0.17 xG chance 0–2
The model against the result
- Royal Antwerp FC
- 26%
- Draw
- 29%
- Royale Union Saint-Gilloise
- 45% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Royale Union Saint-Gilloise produced 1.75 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 7
- 21
- On target
- 1
- 10
- Inside the box
- 3
- 18
- xG per shot
- 0.06
- 0.16
- Open play xG
- 0.16
- 2.72
- Set-piece xG
- 0.27
- 0.69
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.41 for Royal Antwerp FC and 3.33 for Royale Union Saint-Gilloise.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
28 shots · 3.84 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Royal Antwerp FC
- Royale Union Saint-Gilloise
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.49 xG created 2.13 xGA
- W 2.20 created, 0.96 conceded against SK Beveren
- W 1.19 created, 0.77 conceded against KV Kortrijk
- D 1.86 created, 1.30 conceded against KRC Genk
- L 0.77 created, 3.38 conceded against Sint-Truidense VV
- L 0.83 created, 3.42 conceded against Standard Liège
- L 2.09 created, 2.94 conceded against Club Brugge KV
1.88 xG created 1.13 xGA
- W 1.79 created, 0.76 conceded against KVC Westerlo
- D 0.89 created, 0.98 conceded against SV Zulte Waregem
- W 1.60 created, 1.34 conceded against RSC Anderlecht
- W 2.49 created, 0.85 conceded against Sint-Truidense VV
- W 1.24 created, 2.18 conceded against RC Sporting Charleroi
- W 3.27 created, 0.65 conceded against Lommel SK
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
6 opportunities flagged0 won6 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Royal Antwerp FC 2+ goals | 3.75 | +28.1% | Lost |
| Royal Antwerp FC to win | 4.75 | +23.6% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.90 | +13.3% | Lost |
| Royal Antwerp FC to score | 1.53 | +11.4% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.80 | +10.3% | Lost |
| Royale Union Saint-Gilloise at most 1 goal | 2.10 | +7.8% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Royal Antwerp FC | 26.0% | 19.3% | +6.8 pp | 3.84 |
| Draw | 29.1% | 23.5% | +5.6 pp | 3.44 |
| Royale Union Saint-Gilloise | 44.9% | 57.2% | −12.3 pp | 2.23 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Royal Antwerp FC to score | 72.6% | 60.8% | +11.9 pp | 1.38 |
| Royal Antwerp FC not to score | 27.4% | 39.2% | −11.9 pp | 3.66 |
| Royale Union Saint-Gilloise to score | 82.0% | 82.8% | −0.7 pp | 1.22 |
| Royale Union Saint-Gilloise not to score | 18.0% | 17.2% | +0.7 pp | 5.57 |
| Both teams to score | 61.3% | 52.0% | +9.3 pp | 1.63 |
| Both teams not to score | 38.7% | 48.0% | −9.3 pp | 2.58 |
| Royal Antwerp FC 2+ goals | 34.2% | 25.0% | +9.2 pp | 2.93 |
| Royal Antwerp FC at most 1 goal | 65.8% | 75.0% | −9.2 pp | 1.52 |
| Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 2+ goals | 48.7% | 55.7% | −7.1 pp | 2.05 |
| Royale Union Saint-Gilloise at most 1 goal | 51.3% | 44.3% | +7.1 pp | 1.95 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.7% | 76.6% | +4.1 pp | 1.24 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 19.3% | 23.4% | −4.1 pp | 5.19 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.2% | 54.6% | −0.3 pp | 1.84 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.8% | 45.4% | +0.3 pp | 2.19 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Royal Antwerp FC sample
- 20 matches
- Royale Union Saint-Gilloise sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.