Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 18:15
Full timeRC Sporting Charleroi 3:2 Cercle Brugge
RC Sporting Charleroi were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 47%. They won 3–2. The biggest difference was Cercle Brugge's attack: 2.08 xG against 1.19 projected (+0.89). RC Sporting Charleroi produced 2.04 xG against 1.67 projected (+0.37).
Goals
- 15' Freddy Mbemba RC Sporting Charleroi · 0.18 xG chance 1–0
- 25' Aurélien Scheidler RC Sporting Charleroi · 0.13 xG chance 2–0
- 30' Dante Vanzeir Cercle Brugge · 0.52 xG chance 2–1
- 61' Aurélien Scheidler (pen.) RC Sporting Charleroi · 0.82 xG chance 3–1
- 73' Steve Ngoura (pen.) Cercle Brugge · 0.82 xG chance 3–2
The model against the result
- RC Sporting Charleroi
- 47% What happened
- Draw
- 28%
- Cercle Brugge
- 24%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Cercle Brugge produced 0.89 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 14
- 7
- On target
- 7
- 6
- Inside the box
- 9
- 7
- xG per shot
- 0.15
- 0.30
- Open play xG
- 1.18
- 1.30
- Set-piece xG
- 0.06
- 0.00
- Penalties
- 1
- 1
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.25 for RC Sporting Charleroi and 1.29 for Cercle Brugge.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
21 shots · 4.18 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- RC Sporting Charleroi
- Cercle Brugge
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.89 xG created 0.88 xGA
- W 3.15 created, 1.30 conceded against Oud-Heverlee Leuven
- W 1.25 created, 0.34 conceded against Lommel SK
- W 1.44 created, 0.23 conceded against KV Mechelen
- W 1.69 created, 1.20 conceded against KV Kortrijk
- L 2.18 created, 1.24 conceded against Royale Union Saint-Gilloise
- W 1.64 created, 1.00 conceded against SV Zulte Waregem
1.62 xG created 1.71 xGA
- D 1.47 created, 2.60 conceded against Standard Liège
- D 4.15 created, 2.04 conceded against Sint-Truidense VV
- L 0.76 created, 1.83 conceded against Club Brugge KV
- L 1.25 created, 1.63 conceded against Lommel SK
- L 0.49 created, 1.22 conceded against KAA Gent
- D 1.60 created, 0.92 conceded against Oud-Heverlee Leuven
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
2 opportunities flagged0 won2 lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| RC Sporting Charleroi at most 1 goal | 2.20 | +6.8% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.60 | +1.9% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Sporting Charleroi | 47.3% | 52.0% | −4.7 pp | 2.12 |
| Draw | 28.3% | 25.3% | +3.0 pp | 3.53 |
| Cercle Brugge | 24.4% | 22.7% | +1.7 pp | 4.09 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Sporting Charleroi to score | 83.6% | 84.2% | −0.6 pp | 1.20 |
| RC Sporting Charleroi not to score | 16.4% | 15.8% | +0.6 pp | 6.12 |
| Cercle Brugge to score | 72.4% | 68.7% | +3.7 pp | 1.38 |
| Cercle Brugge not to score | 27.6% | 31.3% | −3.7 pp | 3.62 |
| Both teams to score | 62.2% | 58.9% | +3.3 pp | 1.61 |
| Both teams not to score | 37.8% | 41.1% | −3.3 pp | 2.64 |
| RC Sporting Charleroi 2+ goals | 51.5% | 57.7% | −6.2 pp | 1.94 |
| RC Sporting Charleroi at most 1 goal | 48.5% | 42.3% | +6.2 pp | 2.06 |
| Cercle Brugge 2+ goals | 33.9% | 35.5% | −1.6 pp | 2.95 |
| Cercle Brugge at most 1 goal | 66.1% | 64.5% | +1.6 pp | 1.51 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.9% | 79.2% | +2.7 pp | 1.22 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 18.1% | 20.8% | −2.7 pp | 5.53 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.1% | 58.2% | −2.1 pp | 1.78 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.9% | 41.8% | +2.1 pp | 2.28 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- RC Sporting Charleroi sample
- 20 matches
- Cercle Brugge sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 9 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 9 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.