Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 20:45
Full timeOud-Heverlee Leuven 1:1 Cercle Brugge
Cercle Brugge were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 38%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was Oud-Heverlee Leuven's attack: 0.92 xG against 1.37 projected (−0.45).
Goals
- 25' Davis Opoku Oud-Heverlee Leuven · 0.21 xG chance 1–0
- 90' Krys Kouassi (pen.) Cercle Brugge · 0.82 xG chance 1–1
The model against the result
- Oud-Heverlee Leuven
- 33%
- Draw
- 29% What happened
- Cercle Brugge
- 38%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Oud-Heverlee Leuven produced 0.45 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 10
- 13
- On target
- 2
- 3
- Inside the box
- 6
- 7
- xG per shot
- 0.09
- 0.12
- Open play xG
- 0.85
- 0.52
- Set-piece xG
- 0.08
- 0.28
- Penalties
- 0
- 1
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.92 for Oud-Heverlee Leuven and 0.81 for Cercle Brugge.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
23 shots · 2.55 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Oud-Heverlee Leuven
- Cercle Brugge
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.07 xG created 2.06 xGA
- L 1.11 created, 1.25 conceded against KRC Genk
- L 1.30 created, 3.15 conceded against RC Sporting Charleroi
- L 0.72 created, 2.92 conceded against Club Brugge KV
- L 1.89 created, 1.36 conceded against Standard Liège
- L 0.52 created, 0.98 conceded against KAA Gent
- L 0.88 created, 2.68 conceded against SK Beveren
1.61 xG created 1.81 xGA
- L 1.52 created, 1.55 conceded against RAAL La Louvière
- D 1.47 created, 2.60 conceded against Standard Liège
- D 4.15 created, 2.04 conceded against Sint-Truidense VV
- L 0.76 created, 1.83 conceded against Club Brugge KV
- L 1.25 created, 1.63 conceded against Lommel SK
- L 0.49 created, 1.22 conceded against KAA Gent
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
3 opportunities flagged3 won0 lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oud-Heverlee Leuven at most 1 goal | 1.73 | +2.2% | Won |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.30 | +1.9% | Won |
| Draw | 3.40 | +0.1% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oud-Heverlee Leuven | 32.8% | 37.3% | −4.5 pp | 3.05 |
| Draw | 29.4% | 26.9% | +2.6 pp | 3.40 |
| Cercle Brugge | 37.7% | 35.8% | +1.9 pp | 2.65 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oud-Heverlee Leuven to score | 77.4% | 76.6% | +0.8 pp | 1.29 |
| Oud-Heverlee Leuven not to score | 22.6% | 23.4% | −0.8 pp | 4.42 |
| Cercle Brugge to score | 79.7% | 76.6% | +3.1 pp | 1.25 |
| Cercle Brugge not to score | 20.3% | 23.4% | −3.1 pp | 4.92 |
| Both teams to score | 63.3% | 60.8% | +2.6 pp | 1.58 |
| Both teams not to score | 36.7% | 39.2% | −2.6 pp | 2.73 |
| Oud-Heverlee Leuven 2+ goals | 40.8% | 46.3% | −5.5 pp | 2.45 |
| Oud-Heverlee Leuven at most 1 goal | 59.2% | 53.7% | +5.5 pp | 1.69 |
| Cercle Brugge 2+ goals | 44.6% | 44.3% | +0.3 pp | 2.24 |
| Cercle Brugge at most 1 goal | 55.4% | 55.7% | −0.3 pp | 1.80 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.7% | 81.1% | +0.6 pp | 1.22 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 18.3% | 18.9% | −0.6 pp | 5.47 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.7% | 59.0% | −3.3 pp | 1.79 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.3% | 41.0% | +3.3 pp | 2.26 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Oud-Heverlee Leuven sample
- 20 matches
- Cercle Brugge sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 5 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 5 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.