Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 16:00
Full timeSK Beveren 2:0 Sint-Truidense VV
Sint-Truidense VV were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 39%. SK Beveren won 2–0. The biggest difference was Sint-Truidense VV's attack: 0.72 xG against 1.58 projected (−0.86).
Goals
- 52' Chris Lokesa (pen.) SK Beveren · 0.82 xG chance 1–0
- 55' Jearl Margaritha SK Beveren · 0.40 xG chance 2–0
The model against the result
- SK Beveren
- 33% What happened
- Draw
- 28%
- Sint-Truidense VV
- 39%
Data coverage One of these teams has only 5 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Projected vs produced
Sint-Truidense VV produced 0.86 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 11
- 11
- On target
- 4
- 0
- Inside the box
- 6
- 7
- xG per shot
- 0.16
- 0.07
- Open play xG
- 0.89
- 0.63
- Set-piece xG
- 0.04
- 0.09
- Penalties
- 1
- 0
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.91 for SK Beveren.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
22 shots · 2.47 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- SK Beveren
- Sint-Truidense VV
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.13 xG created 2.01 xGA
2.03 xG created 1.63 xGA
- W 1.52 created, 0.42 conceded against KV Mechelen
- D 1.98 created, 1.49 conceded against Lommel SK
- D 2.04 created, 4.15 conceded against Cercle Brugge
- W 3.38 created, 0.77 conceded against Royal Antwerp FC
- L 0.85 created, 2.49 conceded against Royale Union Saint-Gilloise
- W 2.40 created, 0.44 conceded against RAAL La Louvière
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
No value opportunities met the model's threshold before kick-off.
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SK Beveren | 32.8% | 31.3% | +1.5 pp | 3.05 |
| Draw | 28.2% | 27.5% | +0.8 pp | 3.54 |
| Sint-Truidense VV | 39.0% | 41.2% | −2.2 pp | 2.56 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SK Beveren to score | 79.1% | 75.0% | +4.1 pp | 1.26 |
| SK Beveren not to score | 20.9% | 25.0% | −4.1 pp | 4.77 |
| Sint-Truidense VV to score | 81.9% | 79.2% | +2.7 pp | 1.22 |
| Sint-Truidense VV not to score | 18.1% | 20.8% | −2.7 pp | 5.51 |
| Both teams to score | 66.3% | 62.5% | +3.8 pp | 1.51 |
| Both teams not to score | 33.7% | 37.5% | −3.8 pp | 2.96 |
| SK Beveren 2+ goals | 43.6% | 42.3% | +1.3 pp | 2.29 |
| SK Beveren at most 1 goal | 56.4% | 57.7% | −1.3 pp | 1.77 |
| Sint-Truidense VV 2+ goals | 48.4% | 50.0% | −1.6 pp | 2.07 |
| Sint-Truidense VV at most 1 goal | 51.6% | 50.0% | +1.6 pp | 1.94 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.3% | 81.1% | +3.2 pp | 1.19 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 15.7% | 18.9% | −3.2 pp | 6.37 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.1% | 59.9% | +0.2 pp | 1.66 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.9% | 40.1% | −0.2 pp | 2.51 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
· 1 warningShow Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- SK Beveren sample
- 5 matches
- Sint-Truidense VV sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 hour before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 hour before kick-off
Warnings
- SK Beveren has only 5 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.