Celta Vigo 3:0 Rayo Vallecano: xG & match report · La Liga

Sunday, 18/01/2026 at 18:30

Full time

Match report · La Liga

Celta Vigo Home 1.87 xG · 11 shots

Rayo Vallecano Away 1.18 xG · 14 shots

30 The scoreline reflected the chances

Goals

40' Sergio Carreira Celta Vigo · 0.51 xG chance 1–0
54' Bryan Zaragoza (pen.) Celta Vigo · 0.82 xG chance 2–0
79' Javier Rueda Celta Vigo · 0.21 xG chance 3–0

The shots behind it

Celta Vigo Rayo Vallecano

Shots: 11; 14
On target: 7; 3
Inside the box: 6; 9
xG per shot: 0.18; 0.08
Open play xG: 1.03; 0.85
Set-piece xG: 0.08; 0.31
Penalties: 1; 0

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.10 for Celta Vigo and 1.18 for Rayo Vallecano.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

25 shots · 3.09 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Celta Vigo
Rayo Vallecano
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Celta Vigo

1.43 xG created 1.19 xGA

L 0.63 created, 0.38 conceded against Espanyol
W 1.55 created, 2.29 conceded against Real Madrid
W 1.40 created, 1.62 conceded against Athletic Club
D 0.66 created, 0.63 conceded against Real Oviedo
W 2.70 created, 1.94 conceded against Valencia
W 1.63 created, 0.27 conceded against Sevilla

Rayo Vallecano

1.21 xG created 1.12 xGA

D 1.30 created, 0.71 conceded against Valencia
L 0.25 created, 1.33 conceded against Espanyol
D 1.55 created, 0.76 conceded against Real Betis
L 0.92 created, 2.40 conceded against Elche
D 0.89 created, 0.77 conceded against Getafe
W 2.37 created, 0.72 conceded against Mallorca

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Celta Vigo: 0 won · 1 drawn · 0 lost

Rayo Vallecano 1:1 Celta Vigo 21/09/2025 xG 0.99 – 0.81

Model details

Show

The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.