Sunday, 08/11/2026 at 20:00
33d 7h to kick-offSevilla – Deportivo Alavés
Model updated 6 October, 12:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Sevilla
- 36%
- Draw
- 36%
- Deportivo Alavés
- 29%
| Sevilla | Draw | Deportivo Alavés | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.80 | 2.81 | 3.48 |
- Total goals
- 2.00
- Over 2.5 goals
- 32%
- Both teams to score
- 46%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Sevilla
36% Sevilla to win
- Attack
- 17th vs 6th
- Sevilla attack v Deportivo Alavés defence
- Defence
- 3rd vs 9th
- Sevilla defence v Deportivo Alavés attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.42 vs -0.18
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.06 – 0.94
- Sevilla v Deportivo Alavés
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Sevilla | Deportivo Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.99 · 16th | (better) 1.28 · 9th |
| xGA / match | 1.30 · 9th | (better) 1.19 · 5th |
| xGD / match | -0.31 · 11th | (better) +0.09 · 6th |
| xPts / match | 1.30 · 9th | (better) 1.44 · 6th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.42 | (better) -0.18 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 44% of the model's distribution.
- Sevilla clean sheet
- 36%
- Sevilla 2+ goals
- 29%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 68%
- Both teams to score: no
- 54%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 17.9%
- 0:0
- 13.4%
- 1:0
- 12.2%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Sevilla sample
- 20 matches
- Deportivo Alavés sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Sevilla
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · Deportivo Alavés
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Tuesday, 06/10/2026 at 12:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.