Estoril Praia 0:0 FC Arouca: xG & match report · Liga Portugal

Monday, 07/09/2026 at 21:15

Full time

Match report · Liga Portugal

Estoril Praia Home 0.86 xG · 18 shots

FC Arouca Away 1.07 xG · 12 shots

00 The chances were evenly matched

Estoril Praia were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 39%. It finished 0–0. The biggest difference was Estoril Praia's attack: 0.86 xG against 1.36 projected (−0.50).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Estoril Praia: 39%
Draw: 31% What happened
FC Arouca: 30%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Estoril Praia 1.36 0.86 -0.50

FC Arouca 1.18 1.07 -0.11

Estoril Praia produced 0.50 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Estoril Praia FC Arouca

Shots: 18; 12
On target: 8; 2
Inside the box: 10; 6
xG per shot: 0.05; 0.09
Open play xG: 0.60; 1.04
Set-piece xG: 0.24; 0.09
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.84 for Estoril Praia and 1.09 for FC Arouca.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

30 shots · 1.97 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Estoril Praia
FC Arouca
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Estoril Praia

0.97 xG created 1.96 xGA

D 0.90 created, 1.27 conceded against FC Alverca
L 1.52 created, 4.22 conceded against Benfica
D 1.06 created, 1.47 conceded against Famalicão
L 0.82 created, 2.08 conceded against CD Nacional
L 1.16 created, 0.70 conceded against Rio Ave
L 0.36 created, 2.03 conceded against Benfica

FC Arouca

1.30 xG created 1.29 xGA

W 1.39 created, 0.81 conceded against Gil Vicente
W 1.60 created, 0.57 conceded against Tondela
W 0.49 created, 2.22 conceded against Vitória SC
W 2.14 created, 0.49 conceded against Moreirense
L 0.54 created, 3.00 conceded against FC Porto
W 1.65 created, 0.67 conceded against Marítimo

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Estoril Praia: 1 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

2 opportunities flagged2 won0 lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Estoril Praia against FC Arouca before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	3.40	+6.3%	Won
Under 2.5 goals	1.95	+1.9%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Estoril Praia	39.0%	39.4%	−0.3 pp	2.56
Draw	31.3%	27.8%	+3.5 pp	3.20
FC Arouca	29.7%	32.9%	−3.1 pp	3.37

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	57.4%	54.7%	+2.8 pp	1.74
Both teams not to score	42.6%	45.3%	−2.8 pp	2.35
Over 1.5 goals	76.4%	75.0%	+1.4 pp	1.31
Under 1.5 goals	23.6%	25.0%	−1.4 pp	4.24
Over 2.5 goals	47.8%	51.3%	−3.6 pp	2.09
Under 2.5 goals	52.2%	48.7%	+3.6 pp	1.91

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Estoril Praia sample: 20 matches
FC Arouca sample: 20 matches
Computed: 10 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 10 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.