xgEdge

Expected goals

Sporting Braga expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Liga Portugal · after 6 matches · updated 1 Oct

Sporting Braga's attacking and defensive expected goals in Liga Portugal 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

Sporting Braga xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.25 xG per match
#9/18
Attack (xG per match) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 Benfica 2.32
#2 FC Porto 2.26
#3 Sporting 2.01
#4 Vitória SC 1.77
#5 FC Alverca 1.40
#6 Santa Clara 1.35
#7 Gil Vicente 1.31
#8 Académico Viseu FC 1.30
#9 Sporting Braga 1.25
#10 FC Arouca 1.24
#11 CF Estrela Amadora 1.23
#12 CD Nacional 1.15
#13 Famalicão 0.99
#14 Marítimo 0.94
#15 Casa Pia 0.89
#16 Estoril Praia 0.85
#17 Moreirense 0.68
#18 Rio Ave 0.54
League avg
1.31
Total
7.50 6 matches
Defence
0.65 xGA per match
#1/18
Defence (xGA per match) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Sporting Braga 0.65
#2 Benfica 0.65
#3 Santa Clara 0.69
#4 Vitória SC 0.77
#5 Sporting 0.79
#6 Gil Vicente 0.88
#7 FC Porto 0.98
#8 Famalicão 1.25
#9 Marítimo 1.32
#10 FC Arouca 1.38
#11 Estoril Praia 1.62
#12 CF Estrela Amadora 1.63
#13 Académico Viseu FC 1.71
#14 Moreirense 1.73
#15 FC Alverca 1.74
#16 Casa Pia 1.77
#17 CD Nacional 1.87
#18 Rio Ave 1.92
League avg
1.31
Total
3.88 6 matches
xG difference
+0.60 xGD per match
#6/18
xG difference (xGD per match) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Benfica +1.66
#2 FC Porto +1.28
#3 Sporting +1.22
#4 Vitória SC +0.99
#5 Santa Clara +0.67
#6 Sporting Braga +0.60
#7 Gil Vicente +0.43
#8 FC Arouca -0.14
#9 Famalicão -0.26
#10 FC Alverca -0.34
#11 Marítimo -0.38
#12 CF Estrela Amadora -0.40
#13 Académico Viseu FC -0.41
#14 CD Nacional -0.72
#15 Estoril Praia -0.76
#16 Casa Pia -0.87
#17 Moreirense -1.06
#18 Rio Ave -1.38
League avg
0.00
Total
+3.62 6 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.83 xPts per match
#6/18
Expected points (xPts per match) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Benfica 2.40
#2 FC Porto 2.22
#3 Sporting 2.17
#4 Vitória SC 1.96
#5 Santa Clara 1.93
#6 Sporting Braga 1.83
#7 Gil Vicente 1.76
#8 FC Arouca 1.37
#9 Famalicão 1.18
#10 CF Estrela Amadora 1.13
#11 Académico Viseu FC 1.08
#12 Marítimo 1.07
#13 CD Nacional 1.06
#14 FC Alverca 1.06
#15 Casa Pia 0.91
#16 Estoril Praia 0.82
#17 Moreirense 0.68
#18 Rio Ave 0.46
League avg
1.39
Total
10.98 vs 11 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 6 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

What the xG says

Sporting Braga's underlying numbers are among the best in Liga Portugal. They rank #6 for xG difference at +0.60 per match, from about average shot volume at about average chance quality. Their 7 goals are 0.50 below 7.50 xG, while 11 points are 0.02 above 10.98 xPts. After only 6 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG
7 7.50 -0.50 scored 0.50 fewer than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
5 3.88 +1.12 conceded 1.12 more than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
11 10.98 +0.02 0.02 points above xPts within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

Sporting Braga are 0.50 goals below their xG after 6 matches.

Goals
7
xG
7.50
Gap
-0.50
Sun 09/08 Mon 31/08 Sat 05/09 Thu 10/09 Mon 14/09 Sun 20/09 -1 0 +1 +0.50 +0.67 +0.40 +0.79 +0.00 -0.50 +0.50 +0.17 -0.27 +0.39 -0.79 -0.50 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
Sporting Braga: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sun 09/08 Moreirense 2 1.50 +0.50 +0.50
Mon 31/08 Vitória SC 1 0.83 +0.17 +0.67
Sat 05/09 FC Alverca 2 2.27 -0.27 +0.40
Thu 10/09 CF Estrela Amadora 1 0.61 +0.39 +0.79
Mon 14/09 Estoril Praia 1 1.79 -0.79 +0.00
Sun 20/09 Santa Clara 0 0.50 -0.50 -0.50

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

Sporting Braga xG trend

Current form +0.73 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 5 of 6 matches. The only negative was against Santa Clara on Sun 20/09 (-0.54).

npxG · last 6
1.21
npxGA · last 6
0.48
-1 0 +1 +2 +3 +0.73 Sun 09/08 +0.60 Mon 31/08 +2.24 Sat 05/09 +0.04 Thu 10/09 +1.32 Mon 14/09 -0.54 Sun 20/09 +0.73 season avg
Sporting Braga: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sun 09/08 Moreirense 0.94 0.21 +0.73 +0.73
Mon 31/08 Vitória SC 0.83 0.23 +0.60 +0.67
Sat 05/09 FC Alverca 2.53 0.29 +2.24 +1.19
Thu 10/09 CF Estrela Amadora 0.61 0.57 +0.04 +0.90
Mon 14/09 Estoril Praia 1.85 0.53 +1.32 +0.99
Sun 20/09 Santa Clara 0.52 1.06 -0.54 +0.73

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.21 npxG and 0.48 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
tied number 13 hardest of 18 in Liga Portugal
−0.08 xG vs league average
Over 6 league matches
Last 5
tied number 10 hardest of 18 in Liga Portugal
+0.01 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

−0.08 xG vs league average · over 6 matches · tied number 13 hardest of 18

  1. Santa Clara Away +0.22
  2. Estoril Praia Home −0.36
  3. CF Estrela Amadora Away −0.13
  4. FC Alverca Away −0.10
  5. Vitória SC Home +0.40
  6. Moreirense Away −0.54

Last 5

+0.01 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · tied number 10 hardest of 18

  1. Santa Clara Away +0.22
  2. Estoril Praia Home −0.36
  3. CF Estrela Amadora Away −0.13
  4. FC Alverca Away −0.10
  5. Vitória SC Home +0.40

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

Sporting Braga shots and chance quality

Average volume, average quality. Sporting Braga take 12.5 shots a match (league 12.2) at 0.10 npxG a shot (league 0.10), #9 in Liga Portugal for volume and #8 for quality. 63% of their shots come from inside the box (league 63%), and set pieces produce 22% of their npxG (league 22%).

Attack

Shot volume
12.5 shots per match
#9/18
Shot volume (shots per match) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club shots per match
=1 Benfica 19.1
=1 Vitória SC 19.1
#3 FC Porto 16.0
#4 Gil Vicente 14.0
#5 Sporting 13.4
=6 CF Estrela Amadora 13.1
=6 Santa Clara 13.1
#8 Estoril Praia 12.7
#9 Sporting Braga 12.5
#10 FC Alverca 11.9
#11 FC Arouca 10.9
#12 CD Nacional 10.7
#13 Marítimo 10.4
#14 Casa Pia 10.3
#15 Famalicão 9.6
#16 Académico Viseu FC 9.3
#17 Moreirense 7.3
#18 Rio Ave 7.1
League avg
12.2
Total
75 shots from 6 matches
Chance quality
0.10 npxG per shot
#8/18
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 Académico Viseu FC 0.15
#2 Sporting 0.14
#3 FC Porto 0.12
#4 Benfica 0.11
#5 FC Alverca 0.11
#6 FC Arouca 0.11
#7 CD Nacional 0.10
#8 Sporting Braga 0.10
#9 Santa Clara 0.10
#10 Famalicão 0.09
#11 CF Estrela Amadora 0.09
#12 Vitória SC 0.09
#13 Marítimo 0.08
#14 Moreirense 0.08
#15 Gil Vicente 0.07
#16 Casa Pia 0.07
#17 Estoril Praia 0.06
#18 Rio Ave 0.06
League avg
0.10
Total
7.28 npxG from 75 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
8.7 shots per match
#5/18
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Vitória SC 7.1
#2 Benfica 7.6
#3 Santa Clara 8.1
#4 Sporting 8.6
#5 Sporting Braga 8.7
#6 Gil Vicente 9.8
#7 FC Porto 10.7
#8 CF Estrela Amadora 11.6
#9 Famalicão 12.0
#10 FC Alverca 12.1
#11 Marítimo 13.4
#12 Estoril Praia 13.9
#13 FC Arouca 14.9
#14 CD Nacional 15.1
=15 Casa Pia 15.7
=15 Moreirense 15.7
#17 Rio Ave 16.9
#18 Académico Viseu FC 17.6
League avg
12.2
Total
52 shots allowed from 6 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.06 npxGA per shot
#1/18
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Sporting Braga 0.06
#2 Santa Clara 0.07
#3 Gil Vicente 0.08
#4 Sporting 0.08
#5 FC Porto 0.08
#6 Académico Viseu FC 0.08
#7 Benfica 0.09
#8 Marítimo 0.09
#9 FC Arouca 0.09
#10 Famalicão 0.10
#11 Casa Pia 0.10
#12 Moreirense 0.10
#13 CD Nacional 0.10
#14 Estoril Praia 0.11
#15 Rio Ave 0.11
#16 Vitória SC 0.11
#17 CF Estrela Amadora 0.12
#18 FC Alverca 0.13
League avg
0.10
Total
2.89 npxGA from 52 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

63% inside the box

League avg 63%

From 47 of 75 shots over 6 matches

Early-season figure: after 6 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

54% allowed inside the box

League avg 63%

From 28 of 52 shots allowed over 6 matches

Early-season figure: after 6 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG comes from

78% open play · 22% set pieces

League avg 22% set pieces

From 1.6 of 7.3 npxG over 6 matches

Early-season figure: after 6 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG allowed comes from

81% open play · 19% set pieces

League avg 22% set pieces

From 0.6 of 2.9 npxG allowed over 6 matches

Early-season figure: after 6 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

Sporting Braga home and away xG

Sporting Braga per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home only 2 matches with xG Away
Matches 2 4
xG / match 1.31 1.22
xGA / match 0.49 0.73
xGD / match +0.82 +0.50
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 2.08 1.70

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every Sporting Braga match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

At home this season

Matches
2
xG / match
1.31
xGA / match
0.49
xGD / match
+0.82
Points
6 of 6
  1. Mon 14/09 Estoril Praia H xG 1.79 xGA 0.75 xGD +1.04
  2. Mon 31/08 Vitória SC H xG 0.83 xGA 0.23 xGD +0.60

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.00. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

Sporting Braga in Liga Portugal

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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