Sunday, 18/10/2026 at 20:45
14d 18h to kick-offOlympique Lyonnais – Nice
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Olympique Lyonnais
- 51%
- Draw
- 29%
- Nice
- 20%
| Olympique Lyonnais | Draw | Nice | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.96 | 3.47 | 4.97 |
- Total goals
- 2.60
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49%
- Both teams to score
- 56%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Olympique Lyonnais
51% Olympique Lyonnais to win
- Attack
- 8th vs 15th
- Olympique Lyonnais attack v Nice defence
- Defence
- 6th vs 15th
- Olympique Lyonnais defence v Nice attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.58 vs -0.43
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.62 – 0.99
- Olympique Lyonnais v Nice
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Olympique Lyonnais | Nice |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.79 · 6th | 1.08 · 18th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.17 · 3rd | 1.75 · joint 10th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.62 · 4th | -0.67 · 16th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.81 · 3rd | 0.94 · 17th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.58 | -0.43 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 36% of the model's distribution.
- Olympique Lyonnais clean sheet
- 35%
- Olympique Lyonnais 2+ goals
- 50%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 51%
- Both teams to score: no
- 44%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.8%
- 2:1
- 11.3%
- 2:0
- 9.8%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Olympique Lyonnais sample
- 20 matches
- Nice sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Olympique Lyonnais
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Nice
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.