Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 17:15
Full timeNice 2:1 Lille
Lille were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 35%. Nice won 2–1. The biggest difference was Nice's attack: 1.50 xG against 1.06 projected (+0.44). Lille produced 1.58 xG against 1.14 projected (+0.44).
Goals
- 22' Nathan Ngoy (o.g.) Nice · 0.12 xG chance 1–0
- 67' Mohamed Amoura Nice · 0.79 xG chance 2–0
- 79' Ayase Ueda Lille · 0.19 xG chance 2–1
The model against the result
- Nice
- 31% What happened
- Draw
- 34%
- Lille
- 35%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Nice produced 0.44 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 11
- 21
- On target
- 5
- 8
- Inside the box
- 7
- 15
- xG per shot
- 0.15
- 0.07
- Open play xG
- 1.65
- 1.20
- Set-piece xG
- 0.00
- 0.37
- Penalties
- —
- —
Nice's shots add up to 1.65 xG and Lille's to 1.57; the published figures are 1.50 and 1.58.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
32 shots · 3.22 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Nice
- Lille
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
6 opportunities flagged2 won4 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lille not to score | 4.33 | +26.1% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.50 | +18.6% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.91 | +17.9% | Lost |
| Lille at most 1 goal | 1.73 | +17.3% | Won |
| Under 1.5 goals | 3.75 | +16.5% | Lost |
| Nice to win | 3.70 | +14.1% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nice | 30.8% | 25.6% | +5.2 pp | 3.24 |
| Draw | 33.9% | 27.1% | +6.8 pp | 2.95 |
| Lille | 35.3% | 47.3% | −12.1 pp | 2.83 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nice to score | 68.3% | 66.3% | +2.0 pp | 1.46 |
| Nice not to score | 31.7% | 33.7% | −2.0 pp | 3.15 |
| Lille to score | 70.9% | 78.3% | −7.4 pp | 1.41 |
| Lille not to score | 29.1% | 21.7% | +7.4 pp | 3.44 |
| Both teams to score | 50.4% | 53.3% | −2.9 pp | 1.98 |
| Both teams not to score | 49.6% | 46.7% | +2.9 pp | 2.02 |
| Nice 2+ goals | 28.7% | 31.3% | −2.5 pp | 3.48 |
| Nice at most 1 goal | 71.3% | 68.7% | +2.5 pp | 1.40 |
| Lille 2+ goals | 32.1% | 46.3% | −14.3 pp | 3.12 |
| Lille at most 1 goal | 67.9% | 53.7% | +14.3 pp | 1.47 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.9% | 74.5% | −5.5 pp | 1.45 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 31.1% | 25.5% | +5.5 pp | 3.22 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38.2% | 50.0% | −11.8 pp | 2.62 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 61.8% | 50.0% | +11.8 pp | 1.62 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Nice sample
- 20 matches
- Lille sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.