Sunday, 18/10/2026 at 15:30
12d 21h to kick-offDebreceni VSC – Zalaegerszegi TE
Model updated 5 October, 15:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Debreceni VSC
- 46%
- Draw
- 27%
- Zalaegerszegi TE
- 27%
| Debreceni VSC | Draw | Zalaegerszegi TE | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.17 | 3.76 | 3.66 |
- Total goals
- 3.23
- Over 2.5 goals
- 65%
- Both teams to score
- 69%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Debreceni VSC
46% Debreceni VSC to win
- Attack
- 5th vs 3rd
- Debreceni VSC attack v Zalaegerszegi TE defence
- Defence
- 9th vs 11th
- Debreceni VSC defence v Zalaegerszegi TE attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.52 vs -0.61
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.83 – 1.41
- Debreceni VSC v Zalaegerszegi TE
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Debreceni VSC | Zalaegerszegi TE |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.45 · 2nd | 1.21 · 12th |
| xGA / match | 2.13 · 9th | (better) 1.79 · 7th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.32 · 6th | -0.58 · 9th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.49 · 6th | 0.96 · 11th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.52 | -0.61 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 31% of the model's distribution.
- Debreceni VSC clean sheet
- 22%
- Debreceni VSC 2+ goals
- 56%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 35%
- Both teams to score: no
- 31%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 12.1%
- 2:1
- 10.6%
- 1:2
- 8.0%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Debreceni VSC sample
- 20 matches
- Zalaegerszegi TE sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Debreceni VSC
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Zalaegerszegi TE
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 15:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.