Sunday, 18/10/2026 at 18:00
14d 16h to kick-offKisvárda FC – Ferencváros TC
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Kisvárda FC
- 20%
- Draw
- 25%
- Ferencváros TC
- 55%
| Kisvárda FC | Draw | Ferencváros TC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 5.03 | 3.93 | 1.83 |
- Total goals
- 3.12
- Over 2.5 goals
- 62%
- Both teams to score
- 65%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Ferencváros TC
55% Ferencváros TC to win
- Attack
- 3rd vs 10th
- Ferencváros TC attack v Kisvárda FC defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 12th
- Ferencváros TC defence v Kisvárda FC attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.87 vs -0.89
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.17 – 1.95
- Kisvárda FC v Ferencváros TC
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Kisvárda FC | Ferencváros TC |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.39 · 10th | (better) 2.35 · 3rd from 3 matches |
| xGA / match | 2.28 · 10th | (better) 1.64 · 2nd from 3 matches |
| xGD / match | -0.89 · 11th | (better) +0.72 · 2nd from 3 matches |
| xPts / match | 0.98 · 10th | (better) 1.91 · 2nd from 3 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.89 | (better) +0.87 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 32% of the model's distribution.
- Ferencváros TC clean sheet
- 28%
- Ferencváros TC 2+ goals
- 60%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 38%
- Both teams to score: no
- 35%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 12.1%
- 1:2
- 11.4%
- 0:2
- 8.3%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Kisvárda FC sample
- 20 matches
- Ferencváros TC sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Kisvárda FC
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Ferencváros TC
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.