Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 14:45
Full timeMTK Budapest 1:2 ETO FC Győr
MTK Budapest were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 43%. ETO FC Győr won 2–1.
The model against the result
- MTK Budapest
- 43%
- Draw
- 25%
- ETO FC Győr
- 32% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Recent form
2.28 xG created 1.83 xGA
- D 2.98 created, 2.09 conceded against Puskás Akadémia
- L 1.70 created, 3.63 conceded against Puskás Akadémia
- D 2.49 created, 0.97 conceded against Újpest
- W 1.40 created, 2.09 conceded against Nyiregyháza Spartacus
- D 1.79 created, 1.44 conceded against Debreceni VSC
- L 3.31 created, 0.73 conceded against Kisvárda FC
1.93 xG created 1.81 xGA
- D 0.99 created, 1.05 conceded against Debreceni VSC
- W 2.95 created, 0.42 conceded against Diósgyőri VTK
- W 2.19 created, 1.38 conceded against Kisvárda FC
- W 2.37 created, 1.87 conceded against Nyiregyháza Spartacus
- D 1.43 created, 4.16 conceded against Debreceni VSC
- D 1.68 created, 2.00 conceded against Kisvárda FC
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
4 opportunities flagged3 won1 lost
- Won
- Won
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.44 | +6.1% | Won |
| Both teams to score | 1.36 | +3.1% | Won |
| MTK Budapest to win | 2.38 | +2.8% | Lost |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.13 | +2.7% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTK Budapest | 43.3% | 39.4% | +3.9 pp | 2.31 |
| Draw | 24.9% | 26.0% | −1.1 pp | 4.02 |
| ETO FC Győr | 31.8% | 34.6% | −2.8 pp | 3.14 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTK Budapest to score | 88.2% | 84.2% | +4.0 pp | 1.13 |
| MTK Budapest not to score | 11.8% | 15.8% | −4.0 pp | 8.51 |
| ETO FC Győr to score | 84.3% | 79.2% | +5.1 pp | 1.19 |
| ETO FC Győr not to score | 15.7% | 20.8% | −5.1 pp | 6.39 |
| Both teams to score | 75.6% | 68.7% | +6.8 pp | 1.32 |
| Both teams not to score | 24.4% | 31.3% | −6.8 pp | 4.09 |
| MTK Budapest 2+ goals | 60.9% | 57.7% | +3.2 pp | 1.64 |
| MTK Budapest at most 1 goal | 39.1% | 42.3% | −3.2 pp | 2.56 |
| ETO FC Győr 2+ goals | 52.7% | 50.0% | +2.7 pp | 1.90 |
| ETO FC Győr at most 1 goal | 47.3% | 50.0% | −2.7 pp | 2.12 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 91.3% | 83.0% | +8.3 pp | 1.10 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 8.7% | 17.0% | −8.3 pp | 11.47 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 73.5% | 64.5% | +9.0 pp | 1.36 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 26.5% | 35.5% | −9.0 pp | 3.77 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- MTK Budapest sample
- 20 matches
- ETO FC Győr sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.