Sunday, 11/10/2026 at 14:45
7d 12h to kick-offZalaegerszegi TE – Nyiregyháza Spartacus
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Zalaegerszegi TE
- 28%
- Draw
- 28%
- Nyiregyháza Spartacus
- 44%
| Zalaegerszegi TE | Draw | Nyiregyháza Spartacus | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.55 | 3.62 | 2.26 |
- Total goals
- 3.09
- Over 2.5 goals
- 62%
- Both teams to score
- 67%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Nyiregyháza Spartacus
44% Nyiregyháza Spartacus to win
- Attack
- 1st vs 3rd
- Nyiregyháza Spartacus attack v Zalaegerszegi TE defence
- Defence
- 2nd vs 11th
- Nyiregyháza Spartacus defence v Zalaegerszegi TE attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.30 vs -0.61
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.37 – 1.72
- Zalaegerszegi TE v Nyiregyháza Spartacus
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Zalaegerszegi TE | Nyiregyháza Spartacus |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.21 · 12th | (better) 2.70 · 1st from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | 1.79 · 7th | (better) 1.31 · 1st from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | -0.58 · 9th | (better) +1.39 · 1st from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | 0.96 · 11th | (better) 2.12 · 1st from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.61 | (better) +1.30 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 32% of the model's distribution.
- Nyiregyháza Spartacus clean sheet
- 23%
- Nyiregyháza Spartacus 2+ goals
- 53%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 38%
- Both teams to score: no
- 33%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.0%
- 1:2
- 10.6%
- 2:1
- 8.3%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Zalaegerszegi TE sample
- 20 matches
- Nyiregyháza Spartacus sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Zalaegerszegi TE
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Nyiregyháza Spartacus
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.