KFC Komárno 0:0 MFK Skalica: xG & match report · Niké Liga (Slovakia)

Saturday, 05/09/2026 at 18:00

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Match report · Niké Liga (Slovakia)

KFC Komárno Home 2.63 xG

MFK Skalica Away 0.34 xG

00 KFC Komárno had the better chances, but it finished level

KFC Komárno were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 51%. It finished 0–0. The biggest difference was MFK Skalica's attack: 0.34 xG against 1.21 projected (−0.87). KFC Komárno produced 2.63 xG against 1.83 projected (+0.80).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

KFC Komárno: 51%
Draw: 27% What happened
MFK Skalica: 23%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

KFC Komárno 1.83 2.63 +0.80

MFK Skalica 1.21 0.34 -0.87

MFK Skalica produced 0.87 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

KFC Komárno MFK Skalica

Shots: 15; 11
On target: 5; 2
Inside the box: 13; 7
xG per shot: 0.18; 0.03

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

KFC Komárno

1.62 xG created 1.35 xGA

L 2.10 created, 0.71 conceded against MFK Zvolen
D 2.59 created, 0.61 conceded against AS Trenčín
L 1.59 created, 1.92 conceded against FC Spartak Trnava
D 1.21 created, 0.65 conceded against MFK Zemplín Michalovce
L 1.21 created, 2.68 conceded against DAC 1904
L 1.04 created, 1.54 conceded against MŠK Žilina

MFK Skalica

1.38 xG created 1.45 xGA

W 2.13 created, 1.29 conceded against FC Košice
L 0.04 created, 1.24 conceded against 1. FC Tatran Prešov
W 0.67 created, 0.42 conceded against MFK Ružomberok
W 1.95 created, 1.55 conceded against MFK Ružomberok
W 1.08 created, 3.25 conceded against MŠK Žilina
L 2.43 created, 0.93 conceded against FC Košice

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

KFC Komárno: 1 won · 1 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

5 opportunities flagged1 won4 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on KFC Komárno against MFK Skalica before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Both teams to score	1.73	+11.5%	Lost
Over 2.5 goals	1.75	+5.8%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.22	+3.3%	Lost
Draw	3.80	+1.6%	Won
MFK Skalica to win	4.50	+1.3%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
KFC Komárno	50.7%	54.8%	−4.0 pp	1.97
Draw	26.7%	24.5%	+2.2 pp	3.74
MFK Skalica	22.5%	20.7%	+1.8 pp	4.44

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	64.6%	53.7%	+10.9 pp	1.55
Both teams not to score	35.4%	46.3%	−10.9 pp	2.82
Over 1.5 goals	84.5%	76.6%	+7.9 pp	1.18
Under 1.5 goals	15.5%	23.4%	−7.9 pp	6.46
Over 2.5 goals	60.5%	53.9%	+6.5 pp	1.65
Under 2.5 goals	39.5%	46.1%	−6.5 pp	2.53

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
KFC Komárno sample: 20 matches
MFK Skalica sample: 20 matches
Computed: 2 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 3 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.