MFK Zemplín Michalovce 3:1 AS Trenčín: xG & match report · Niké Liga (Slovakia)

Saturday, 05/09/2026 at 18:00

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Match report · Niké Liga (Slovakia)

MFK Zemplín Michalovce Home 1.96 xG

AS Trenčín Away 2.35 xG

31 The result went against the chances

MFK Zemplín Michalovce were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 48%. They won 3–1. The biggest difference was AS Trenčín's attack: 2.35 xG against 1.32 projected (+1.03).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

MFK Zemplín Michalovce: 48% What happened
Draw: 27%
AS Trenčín: 25%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

MFK Zemplín Michalovce 1.80 1.96 +0.16

AS Trenčín 1.32 2.35 +1.03

AS Trenčín produced 1.03 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

MFK Zemplín Michalovce AS Trenčín

Shots: 12; 23
On target: 7; 3
Inside the box: 10; 15
xG per shot: 0.16; 0.10

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

MFK Zemplín Michalovce

0.99 xG created 1.55 xGA

W 1.32 created, 1.61 conceded against DAC 1904
W 1.85 created, 0.56 conceded against ŠK Slovan Bratislava
L 1.42 created, 0.76 conceded against MŠK Žilina
D 0.65 created, 1.21 conceded against KFC Komárno
L 0.26 created, 2.73 conceded against FC Spartak Trnava
W 0.46 created, 2.45 conceded against ŠK Slovan Bratislava

AS Trenčín

1.70 xG created 2.09 xGA

L 1.99 created, 2.05 conceded against MFK Ružomberok
W 1.57 created, 2.04 conceded against FC Košice
D 0.61 created, 2.59 conceded against KFC Komárno
L 1.80 created, 2.16 conceded against FK Železiarne Podbrezová
L 1.44 created, 1.82 conceded against FC Spartak Trnava
W 2.78 created, 1.87 conceded against MFK Ružomberok

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

MFK Zemplín Michalovce: 2 won · 0 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

1 opportunity flagged1 won0 lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on MFK Zemplín Michalovce against AS Trenčín before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Both teams to score	1.53	+2.1%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
MFK Zemplín Michalovce	47.7%	47.0%	+0.7 pp	2.10
Draw	26.9%	26.1%	+0.8 pp	3.72
AS Trenčín	25.4%	26.9%	−1.5 pp	3.94

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	66.6%	60.8%	+5.8 pp	1.50
Both teams not to score	33.4%	39.2%	−5.8 pp	2.99
Over 1.5 goals	85.5%	79.4%	+6.1 pp	1.17
Under 1.5 goals	14.5%	20.6%	−6.1 pp	6.90
Over 2.5 goals	62.2%	59.9%	+2.3 pp	1.61
Under 2.5 goals	37.8%	40.1%	−2.3 pp	2.65

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
MFK Zemplín Michalovce sample: 20 matches
AS Trenčín sample: 20 matches
Computed: 2 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 3 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.