xgEdge

Expected goals

Derry City expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Premier Division (Ireland) · after 32 matches · updated 4 Oct

Derry City's attacking and defensive expected goals in Premier Division (Ireland) 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

Derry City xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.18 xG per match
#8/10
Attack (xG per match) across Premier Division (Ireland), best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 St. Patrick's Athletic 1.78
#2 Bohemian FC 1.64
#3 Dundalk FC 1.57
#4 Shamrock Rovers 1.41
#5 Shelbourne 1.40
#6 Waterford FC 1.40
#7 Galway United 1.35
#8 Derry City 1.18
#9 Drogheda United 1.16
#10 Sligo Rovers 1.03
League avg
1.39
Total
37.90 32 matches
Defence
1.18 xGA per match
#4/10
Defence (xGA per match) across Premier Division (Ireland), best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 St. Patrick's Athletic 0.93
#2 Bohemian FC 1.10
#3 Shamrock Rovers 1.14
#4 Derry City 1.18
#5 Shelbourne 1.20
#6 Galway United 1.51
#7 Dundalk FC 1.58
#8 Drogheda United 1.60
#9 Waterford FC 1.77
#10 Sligo Rovers 1.88
League avg
1.39
Total
37.62 32 matches
xG difference
+0.01 xGD per match
#5/10
xG difference (xGD per match) across Premier Division (Ireland), best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 St. Patrick's Athletic +0.85
#2 Bohemian FC +0.54
#3 Shamrock Rovers +0.27
#4 Shelbourne +0.20
#5 Derry City +0.01
#6 Dundalk FC -0.01
#7 Galway United -0.16
#8 Waterford FC -0.38
#9 Drogheda United -0.44
#10 Sligo Rovers -0.85
League avg
0.00
Total
+0.28 32 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.37 xPts per match
#5/10
Expected points (xPts per match) across Premier Division (Ireland), best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 St. Patrick's Athletic 1.87
#2 Bohemian FC 1.75
#3 Shamrock Rovers 1.58
#4 Shelbourne 1.48
#5 Derry City 1.37
#6 Dundalk FC 1.35
#7 Galway United 1.28
#8 Waterford FC 1.17
#9 Drogheda United 1.10
#10 Sligo Rovers 0.87
League avg
1.38
Total
43.84 vs 41 actual pts

What the xG says

Derry City's underlying numbers sit close to the Premier Division (Ireland) average. They rank #5 for xG difference at +0.01 per match, from about average shot volume at the league's lowest chance quality. Their 45 goals are 7.10 above 37.90 xG, while 41 points are 2.84 below 43.84 xPts.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG
45 37.90 +7.10 scored 7.10 more than xG outside normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
42 37.62 +4.38 conceded 4.38 more than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
41 43.84 -2.84 2.84 points below xPts within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

Derry City are 7.10 goals above their xG after 32 matches.

Goals
45
xG
37.90
Gap
+7.10
Fri 06/02 Fri 13/02 Fri 20/02 Fri 27/02 Fri 06/03 Fri 13/03 Mon 16/03 Fri 20/03 Fri 03/04 Mon 06/04 Fri 10/04 Fri 17/04 Fri 24/04 Fri 01/05 Mon 04/05 Fri 08/05 Fri 15/05 Fri 22/05 Mon 25/05 Fri 29/05 Fri 12/06 Fri 19/06 Mon 22/06 Fri 26/06 Fri 03/07 Sun 02/08 Fri 07/08 Fri 21/08 Sun 30/08 Fri 11/09 Mon 14/09 Fri 18/09 -2 0 +2 +4 +6 +8 -0.33 -0.37 -1.42 -0.01 -0.40 -0.33 -0.78 +0.10 +0.00 -0.38 +0.42 +1.70 +0.54 +1.07 +0.98 +0.69 +2.20 +1.44 +0.42 +0.55 +1.32 +0.85 +0.54 +1.09 +1.55 +2.05 +2.37 +3.98 +5.78 +5.73 +6.84 +7.10 -0.33 -0.04 -1.05 +1.41 -0.39 +0.07 -0.45 +0.88 -0.10 -0.38 +0.80 +1.28 -1.16 +0.53 -0.09 -0.29 +1.51 -0.76 -1.02 +0.13 +0.77 -0.47 -0.31 +0.55 +0.46 +0.50 +0.32 +1.61 +1.80 -0.05 +1.11 +0.26 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
Derry City: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Fri 06/02 Sligo Rovers 2 2.33 -0.33 -0.33
Fri 13/02 Dundalk FC 2 2.04 -0.04 -0.37
Fri 20/02 Bohemian FC 0 1.05 -1.05 -1.42
Fri 27/02 Waterford FC 4 2.59 +1.41 -0.01
Fri 06/03 Shamrock Rovers 0 0.39 -0.39 -0.40
Fri 13/03 Shelbourne 1 0.93 +0.07 -0.33
Mon 16/03 St. Patrick's Athletic 0 0.45 -0.45 -0.78
Fri 20/03 Drogheda United 2 1.12 +0.88 +0.10
Fri 03/04 Galway United 1 1.10 -0.10 +0.00
Mon 06/04 Sligo Rovers 0 0.38 -0.38 -0.38
Fri 10/04 Dundalk FC 2 1.20 +0.80 +0.42
Fri 17/04 Shelbourne 2 0.72 +1.28 +1.70
Fri 24/04 Shamrock Rovers 1 2.16 -1.16 +0.54
Fri 01/05 Bohemian FC 1 0.47 +0.53 +1.07
Mon 04/05 Galway United 1 1.09 -0.09 +0.98
Fri 08/05 Drogheda United 0 0.29 -0.29 +0.69
Fri 15/05 Waterford FC 2 0.49 +1.51 +2.20
Fri 22/05 St. Patrick's Athletic 0 0.76 -0.76 +1.44
Mon 25/05 Shelbourne 0 1.02 -1.02 +0.42
Fri 29/05 Dundalk FC 1 0.87 +0.13 +0.55
Fri 12/06 Bohemian FC 4 3.23 +0.77 +1.32
Fri 19/06 Galway United 1 1.47 -0.47 +0.85
Mon 22/06 Shamrock Rovers 1 1.31 -0.31 +0.54
Fri 26/06 Drogheda United 2 1.45 +0.55 +1.09
Fri 03/07 Waterford FC 2 1.54 +0.46 +1.55
Sun 02/08 St. Patrick's Athletic 1 0.50 +0.50 +2.05
Fri 07/08 Sligo Rovers 2 1.68 +0.32 +2.37
Fri 21/08 Bohemian FC 3 1.39 +1.61 +3.98
Sun 30/08 Shamrock Rovers 3 1.20 +1.80 +5.78
Fri 11/09 Shelbourne 1 1.05 -0.05 +5.73
Mon 14/09 Waterford FC 2 0.89 +1.11 +6.84
Fri 18/09 Galway United 1 0.74 +0.26 +7.10

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking → Compare with every club in Europe →

Derry City xG trend

Current form +0.10 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 14 of 32 matches. The worst was against Waterford FC on Fri 03/07 (-1.75).

npxG · last 6
1.16
npxGA · last 6
1.06
-2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +2.10 Fri 06/02 +1.51 Fri 13/02 -0.18 Fri 20/02 +1.15 Fri 27/02 -1.40 Fri 06/03 -0.12 Fri 13/03 -0.73 Mon 16/03 +0.81 Fri 20/03 -0.49 Fri 03/04 -0.03 Mon 06/04 -1.22 Fri 10/04 -1.10 Fri 17/04 +1.02 Fri 24/04 -0.12 Fri 01/05 +0.47 Mon 04/05 -0.65 Fri 08/05 -1.66 Fri 15/05 +0.13 Fri 22/05 +0.98 Mon 25/05 -0.89 Fri 29/05 +2.42 Fri 12/06 -0.28 Fri 19/06 -0.14 Mon 22/06 +1.04 Fri 26/06 -1.75 Fri 03/07 -1.17 Sun 02/08 +1.45 Fri 07/08 -0.93 Fri 21/08 +0.31 Sun 30/08 +0.23 Fri 11/09 -0.61 Mon 14/09 +0.13 Fri 18/09 +0.01 season avg
Derry City: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Fri 06/02 Sligo Rovers 2.33 0.23 +2.10 +2.10
Fri 13/02 Dundalk FC 2.04 0.53 +1.51 +1.81
Fri 20/02 Bohemian FC 1.05 1.23 -0.18 +1.14
Fri 27/02 Waterford FC 2.59 1.44 +1.15 +1.15
Fri 06/03 Shamrock Rovers 0.39 1.79 -1.40 +0.64
Fri 13/03 Shelbourne 0.93 1.05 -0.12 +0.51
Mon 16/03 St. Patrick's Athletic 0.45 1.18 -0.73 +0.33
Fri 20/03 Drogheda United 1.12 0.31 +0.81 +0.39
Fri 03/04 Galway United 1.10 1.59 -0.49 +0.29
Mon 06/04 Sligo Rovers 0.38 0.41 -0.03 +0.26
Fri 10/04 Dundalk FC 1.20 2.42 -1.22 +0.13
Fri 17/04 Shelbourne 0.72 1.82 -1.10 +0.02
Fri 24/04 Shamrock Rovers 2.16 1.14 +1.02 +0.10
Fri 01/05 Bohemian FC 0.47 0.59 -0.12 +0.09
Mon 04/05 Galway United 1.09 0.62 +0.47 +0.11
Fri 08/05 Drogheda United 0.29 0.94 -0.65 +0.06
Fri 15/05 Waterford FC 0.49 2.15 -1.66 -0.04
Fri 22/05 St. Patrick's Athletic 0.76 0.63 +0.13 -0.03
Mon 25/05 Shelbourne 1.02 0.04 +0.98 +0.02
Fri 29/05 Dundalk FC 0.87 1.76 -0.89 -0.02
Fri 12/06 Bohemian FC 3.23 0.81 +2.42 +0.10
Fri 19/06 Galway United 1.47 1.75 -0.28 +0.08
Mon 22/06 Shamrock Rovers 1.31 1.45 -0.14 +0.07
Fri 26/06 Drogheda United 1.45 0.41 +1.04 +0.11
Fri 03/07 Waterford FC 1.54 3.29 -1.75 +0.03
Sun 02/08 St. Patrick's Athletic 0.50 1.67 -1.17 -0.01
Fri 07/08 Sligo Rovers 1.68 0.23 +1.45 +0.04
Fri 21/08 Bohemian FC 1.39 2.32 -0.93 +0.01
Sun 30/08 Shamrock Rovers 1.20 0.89 +0.31 +0.02
Fri 11/09 Shelbourne 1.05 0.82 +0.23 +0.03
Mon 14/09 Waterford FC 0.89 1.50 -0.61 +0.00
Fri 18/09 Galway United 0.74 0.61 +0.13 +0.01

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.18 npxG and 1.18 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
number 6 hardest of 10 in Premier Division (Ireland)
0.00 xG vs league average
Over 32 league matches
Last 5
number 3 hardest of 10 in Premier Division (Ireland)
+0.09 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

0.00 xG vs league average · over 32 matches · number 6 hardest of 10

  1. Galway United Home −0.33
  2. Waterford FC Away +0.09
  3. Shelbourne Away +0.06
  4. Shamrock Rovers Home +0.20
  5. Bohemian FC Away +0.45
  6. Sligo Rovers Home −0.76
  7. St. Patrick's Athletic Away +0.56
  8. Waterford FC Home +0.09
  9. Drogheda United Home −0.36
  10. Shamrock Rovers Away +0.20
  11. Galway United Away −0.33
  12. Bohemian FC Home +0.45
  13. Dundalk FC Away −0.04
  14. Shelbourne Home +0.06
  15. St. Patrick's Athletic Home +0.56
  16. Waterford FC Away +0.09
  17. Drogheda United Away −0.36
  18. Galway United Home −0.33
  19. Bohemian FC Away +0.45
  20. Shamrock Rovers Home +0.20
  21. Shelbourne Away +0.06
  22. Dundalk FC Away −0.04
  23. Sligo Rovers Away −0.76
  24. Galway United Away −0.33
  25. Drogheda United Home −0.36
  26. St. Patrick's Athletic Away +0.56
  27. Shelbourne Home +0.06
  28. Shamrock Rovers Away +0.20
  29. Waterford FC Home +0.09
  30. Bohemian FC Home +0.45
  31. Dundalk FC Home −0.04
  32. Sligo Rovers Home −0.76

Last 5

+0.09 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 3 hardest of 10

  1. Galway United Home −0.33
  2. Waterford FC Away +0.09
  3. Shelbourne Away +0.06
  4. Shamrock Rovers Home +0.20
  5. Bohemian FC Away +0.45

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

Derry City shots and chance quality

Average volume, low quality. Derry City take 13.7 shots a match (league 13.8) at 0.09 npxG a shot (league 0.10), #6 in Premier Division (Ireland) for volume and #10 for quality. 61% of their shots come from inside the box (league 64%).

Attack

Shot volume
13.7 shots per match
#6/10
Shot volume (shots per match) across Premier Division (Ireland), best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 St. Patrick's Athletic 17.3
#2 Bohemian FC 16.5
#3 Dundalk FC 16.1
#4 Shelbourne 14.1
#5 Shamrock Rovers 13.8
#6 Derry City 13.7
#7 Waterford FC 13.4
#8 Galway United 12.2
#9 Drogheda United 10.9
#10 Sligo Rovers 9.7
League avg
13.8
Total
437 shots from 32 matches
Chance quality
0.09 npxG per shot
#10/10
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Premier Division (Ireland), best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 Galway United 0.11
#2 Sligo Rovers 0.11
#3 Drogheda United 0.11
#4 Waterford FC 0.10
#5 St. Patrick's Athletic 0.10
#6 Shamrock Rovers 0.10
#7 Bohemian FC 0.10
#8 Shelbourne 0.10
#9 Dundalk FC 0.10
#10 Derry City 0.09
League avg
0.10
Total
37.90 npxG from 437 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
11.2 shots per match
#4/10
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Premier Division (Ireland), best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Bohemian FC 10.0
#2 St. Patrick's Athletic 10.3
#3 Shamrock Rovers 11.0
#4 Derry City 11.2
#5 Shelbourne 12.2
#6 Dundalk FC 13.9
#7 Drogheda United 15.4
#8 Galway United 16.4
#9 Waterford FC 17.6
#10 Sligo Rovers 19.3
League avg
13.8
Total
358 shots allowed from 32 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.11 npxGA per shot
#8/10
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Premier Division (Ireland), best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 St. Patrick's Athletic 0.09
#2 Galway United 0.09
#3 Sligo Rovers 0.10
#4 Shelbourne 0.10
#5 Waterford FC 0.10
#6 Shamrock Rovers 0.10
#7 Drogheda United 0.10
#8 Derry City 0.11
#9 Bohemian FC 0.11
#10 Dundalk FC 0.11
League avg
0.10
Total
37.62 npxGA from 358 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

61% inside the box

League avg 64%

From 266 of 437 shots over 32 matches

Shots allowed, location

68% allowed inside the box

League avg 64%

From 244 of 358 shots allowed over 32 matches

How the shot figures are made →

Derry City home and away xG

Derry City per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 16 16
xG / match 1.56 0.81
xGA / match 0.84 1.51
xGD / match +0.72 -0.70
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.93 0.81

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every Derry City match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

Last 5

Matches
5
xG / match
1.05
xGA / match
1.23
xGD / match
-0.17
Points
8 of 15
  1. Fri 18/09 Galway United H xG 0.74 xGA 0.61 xGD +0.13
  2. Mon 14/09 Waterford FC A xG 0.89 xGA 1.50 xGD -0.61
  3. Fri 11/09 Shelbourne A xG 1.05 xGA 0.82 xGD +0.23
  4. Sun 30/08 Shamrock Rovers H Best underlying xG 1.20 xGA 0.89 xGD +0.31
  5. Fri 21/08 Bohemian FC A Weakest underlying xG 1.39 xGA 2.32 xGD -0.93

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.00. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

Derry City in Premier Division (Ireland)

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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