Friday, 23/10/2026 at 20:45
16d 14h to kick-offDerry City – Dundalk FC
Model updated 7 October, 06:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Derry City
- 46%
- Draw
- 28%
- Dundalk FC
- 26%
| Derry City | Draw | Dundalk FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.18 | 3.52 | 3.89 |
- Total goals
- 2.88
- Over 2.5 goals
- 57%
- Both teams to score
- 63%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Derry City
46% Derry City to win
- Attack
- 8th vs 8th
- Derry City attack v Dundalk FC defence
- Defence
- 2nd vs 4th
- Derry City defence v Dundalk FC attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.10 vs -0.56
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.65 – 1.23
- Derry City v Dundalk FC
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Derry City | Dundalk FC |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.18 · 8th | (better) 1.57 · 3rd |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.18 · 4th | 1.58 · 7th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.01 · 5th | -0.01 · 6th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.37 · 5th | 1.35 · 6th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.10 | -0.56 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 33% of the model's distribution.
- Derry City clean sheet
- 26%
- Derry City 2+ goals
- 51%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 43%
- Both teams to score: no
- 37%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.0%
- 2:1
- 11.0%
- 1:2
- 7.9%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Derry City sample
- 20 matches
- Dundalk FC sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Derry City
- 16 matches
- Away xG sample · Dundalk FC
- 16 matches
- Computed
- Wednesday, 07/10/2026 at 06:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.