Friday, 18/09/2026 at 20:45
Full timeDerry City 1:0 Galway United
Derry City were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 57%. They won 1–0. The biggest difference was Derry City's attack: 0.74 xG against 1.98 projected (−1.24). Galway United produced 0.61 xG against 1.10 projected (−0.49).
The model against the result
- Derry City
- 57% What happened
- Draw
- 25%
- Galway United
- 18%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Derry City produced 1.24 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 10
- 11
- On target
- 3
- 1
- Inside the box
- 6
- 8
- xG per shot
- 0.07
- 0.06
Recent form
1.12 xG created 1.24 xGA
- D 0.50 created, 1.67 conceded against St. Patrick's Athletic
- W 1.68 created, 0.23 conceded against Sligo Rovers
- L 1.39 created, 2.32 conceded against Bohemian FC
- D 1.20 created, 0.89 conceded against Shamrock Rovers
- W 1.05 created, 0.82 conceded against Shelbourne
- D 0.89 created, 1.50 conceded against Waterford FC
1.34 xG created 1.84 xGA
- D 0.24 created, 2.23 conceded against Bohemian FC
- D 2.18 created, 0.60 conceded against Drogheda United
- W 0.79 created, 2.21 conceded against Dundalk FC
- D 0.54 created, 2.26 conceded against Shelbourne
- L 1.84 created, 2.77 conceded against Bohemian FC
- W 2.42 created, 0.97 conceded against Sligo Rovers
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
5 opportunities flagged1 won4 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derry City 2+ goals | 1.73 | +5.6% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.67 | +5.0% | Lost |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.70 | +4.4% | Lost |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.20 | +2.0% | Lost |
| Derry City to score | 1.14 | +1.0% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derry City | 57.4% | 54.5% | +2.9 pp | 1.74 |
| Draw | 25.0% | 25.3% | −0.3 pp | 4.01 |
| Galway United | 17.6% | 20.2% | −2.6 pp | 5.67 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derry City to score | 88.4% | 82.8% | +5.6 pp | 1.13 |
| Derry City not to score | 11.6% | 17.2% | −5.6 pp | 8.60 |
| Galway United to score | 69.7% | 66.3% | +3.4 pp | 1.44 |
| Galway United not to score | 30.3% | 33.7% | −3.4 pp | 3.30 |
| Both teams to score | 63.0% | 55.7% | +7.2 pp | 1.59 |
| Both teams not to score | 37.0% | 44.3% | −7.2 pp | 2.70 |
| Derry City 2+ goals | 61.2% | 53.7% | +7.5 pp | 1.64 |
| Derry City at most 1 goal | 38.8% | 46.3% | −7.5 pp | 2.57 |
| Galway United 2+ goals | 30.2% | 31.3% | −1.0 pp | 3.31 |
| Galway United at most 1 goal | 69.8% | 68.7% | +1.0 pp | 1.43 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.0% | 78.3% | +6.7 pp | 1.18 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 15.0% | 21.7% | −6.7 pp | 6.68 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.4% | 55.3% | +6.2 pp | 1.63 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.6% | 44.7% | −6.2 pp | 2.59 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Derry City sample
- 20 matches
- Galway United sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 46 minutes before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 11 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.