Friday, 18/09/2026 at 21:00
Full timeShamrock Rovers 3:2 Waterford FC
Shamrock Rovers were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 47%. They won 3–2. The biggest difference was Waterford FC's attack: 1.01 xG against 1.32 projected (−0.31). Shamrock Rovers produced 2.05 xG against 1.78 projected (+0.27).
The model against the result
- Shamrock Rovers
- 47% What happened
- Draw
- 27%
- Waterford FC
- 26%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Waterford FC produced 0.31 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 17
- 13
- On target
- 9
- 4
- Inside the box
- 11
- 7
- xG per shot
- 0.12
- 0.08
Recent form
1.41 xG created 1.14 xGA
- W 1.62 created, 1.12 conceded against Sligo Rovers
- D 0.76 created, 0.94 conceded against Drogheda United
- W 2.66 created, 1.72 conceded against Dundalk FC
- D 0.89 created, 1.20 conceded against Derry City
- D 1.65 created, 0.82 conceded against Shelbourne
- L 0.89 created, 1.03 conceded against St. Patrick's Athletic
1.79 xG created 1.01 xGA
- W 1.67 created, 1.47 conceded against Shelbourne
- W 1.66 created, 1.04 conceded against Bohemian FC
- D 1.59 created, 0.66 conceded against Sligo Rovers
- W 2.27 created, 1.42 conceded against St. Patrick's Athletic
- D 2.04 created, 0.55 conceded against Dundalk FC
- D 1.50 created, 0.89 conceded against Derry City
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
9 opportunities flagged5 won4 lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Waterford FC to win | 5.25 | +36.3% | Lost |
| Waterford FC 2+ goals | 3.50 | +36.1% | Won |
| Waterford FC to score | 1.53 | +16.5% | Won |
| Both teams to score | 1.75 | +16.1% | Won |
| Draw | 4.00 | +8.4% | Lost |
| Shamrock Rovers at most 1 goal | 2.38 | +7.1% | Lost |
| Shamrock Rovers not to score | 7.00 | +2.3% | Lost |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.20 | +2.3% | Won |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.65 | +1.8% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shamrock Rovers | 46.9% | 60.2% | −13.3 pp | 2.13 |
| Draw | 27.1% | 22.6% | +4.5 pp | 3.69 |
| Waterford FC | 26.0% | 17.2% | +8.8 pp | 3.85 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shamrock Rovers to score | 85.4% | 86.4% | −1.0 pp | 1.17 |
| Shamrock Rovers not to score | 14.6% | 13.6% | +1.0 pp | 6.84 |
| Waterford FC to score | 76.0% | 60.8% | +15.2 pp | 1.32 |
| Waterford FC not to score | 24.0% | 39.2% | −15.2 pp | 4.17 |
| Both teams to score | 66.4% | 53.3% | +13.0 pp | 1.51 |
| Both teams not to score | 33.6% | 46.7% | −13.0 pp | 2.97 |
| Shamrock Rovers 2+ goals | 54.9% | 60.8% | −5.9 pp | 1.82 |
| Shamrock Rovers at most 1 goal | 45.1% | 39.2% | +5.9 pp | 2.22 |
| Waterford FC 2+ goals | 38.9% | 26.9% | +12.0 pp | 2.57 |
| Waterford FC at most 1 goal | 61.1% | 73.1% | −12.0 pp | 1.64 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.2% | 78.3% | +6.9 pp | 1.17 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 14.8% | 21.7% | −6.9 pp | 6.77 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.7% | 57.1% | +4.6 pp | 1.62 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.3% | 42.9% | −4.6 pp | 2.61 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Shamrock Rovers sample
- 20 matches
- Waterford FC sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 hour before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 12 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.