xgEdge

Expected goals

St. Patrick's Athletic expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Premier Division (Ireland) · after 32 matches · updated 4 Oct

St. Patrick's Athletic's attacking and defensive expected goals in Premier Division (Ireland) 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

St. Patrick's Athletic xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.78 xG per match
#1/10
Attack (xG per match) across Premier Division (Ireland), best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 St. Patrick's Athletic 1.78
#2 Bohemian FC 1.64
#3 Dundalk FC 1.57
#4 Shamrock Rovers 1.41
#5 Shelbourne 1.40
#6 Waterford FC 1.40
#7 Galway United 1.35
#8 Derry City 1.18
#9 Drogheda United 1.16
#10 Sligo Rovers 1.03
League avg
1.39
Total
56.90 32 matches
Defence
0.93 xGA per match
#1/10
Defence (xGA per match) across Premier Division (Ireland), best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 St. Patrick's Athletic 0.93
#2 Bohemian FC 1.10
#3 Shamrock Rovers 1.14
#4 Derry City 1.18
#5 Shelbourne 1.20
#6 Galway United 1.51
#7 Dundalk FC 1.58
#8 Drogheda United 1.60
#9 Waterford FC 1.77
#10 Sligo Rovers 1.88
League avg
1.39
Total
29.61 32 matches
xG difference
+0.85 xGD per match
#1/10
xG difference (xGD per match) across Premier Division (Ireland), best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 St. Patrick's Athletic +0.85
#2 Bohemian FC +0.54
#3 Shamrock Rovers +0.27
#4 Shelbourne +0.20
#5 Derry City +0.01
#6 Dundalk FC -0.01
#7 Galway United -0.16
#8 Waterford FC -0.38
#9 Drogheda United -0.44
#10 Sligo Rovers -0.85
League avg
0.00
Total
+27.29 32 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.87 xPts per match
#1/10
Expected points (xPts per match) across Premier Division (Ireland), best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 St. Patrick's Athletic 1.87
#2 Bohemian FC 1.75
#3 Shamrock Rovers 1.58
#4 Shelbourne 1.48
#5 Derry City 1.37
#6 Dundalk FC 1.35
#7 Galway United 1.28
#8 Waterford FC 1.17
#9 Drogheda United 1.10
#10 Sligo Rovers 0.87
League avg
1.38
Total
59.84 vs 59 actual pts

What the xG says

St. Patrick's Athletic's underlying numbers are league-leading. They rank #1 for xG difference at +0.85 per match, driven by the league's highest shot volume at about average chance quality. Their 52 goals are 4.90 below 56.90 xG, while 59 points are 0.84 below 59.84 xPts.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG
52 56.90 -4.90 scored 4.90 fewer than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
25 29.61 -4.61 conceded 4.61 fewer than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
59 59.84 -0.84 0.84 points below xPts within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

St. Patrick's Athletic are 4.90 goals below their xG after 32 matches. The gap was widest at -5.55, against Waterford FC on Fri 28/08.

Goals
52
xG
56.90
Gap
-4.90
Sun 08/02 Fri 20/02 Fri 27/02 Mon 02/03 Fri 06/03 Fri 13/03 Mon 16/03 Fri 20/03 Fri 03/04 Mon 06/04 Fri 10/04 Fri 17/04 Fri 24/04 Fri 01/05 Mon 04/05 Fri 08/05 Fri 15/05 Fri 22/05 Fri 29/05 Fri 12/06 Fri 19/06 Fri 26/06 Fri 03/07 Fri 10/07 Fri 24/07 Sun 02/08 Sun 09/08 Fri 21/08 Fri 28/08 Fri 11/09 Mon 14/09 Sat 19/09 -6 -4 -2 0 +2 +4 -0.31 -1.38 -0.19 -0.30 +1.39 +1.12 -0.06 -0.10 +0.03 -1.00 -1.88 +0.45 +2.07 +2.85 +2.98 +3.35 +2.70 +2.07 +1.29 +1.98 +0.25 -0.89 +0.05 -1.50 -2.48 -3.15 -4.30 -4.13 -5.55 -4.58 -3.52 -4.90 -0.31 -1.07 +1.19 -0.11 +1.69 -0.27 -1.18 -0.04 +0.13 -1.03 -0.88 +2.33 +1.62 +0.78 +0.13 +0.37 -0.65 -0.63 -0.78 +0.69 -1.73 -1.14 +0.94 -1.55 -0.98 -0.67 -1.15 +0.17 -1.42 +0.97 +1.06 -1.38 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
St. Patrick's Athletic: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sun 08/02 Bohemian FC 0 0.31 -0.31 -0.31
Fri 20/02 Shamrock Rovers 0 1.07 -1.07 -1.38
Fri 27/02 Dundalk FC 4 2.81 +1.19 -0.19
Mon 02/03 Galway United 1 1.11 -0.11 -0.30
Fri 06/03 Shelbourne 3 1.31 +1.69 +1.39
Fri 13/03 Drogheda United 4 4.27 -0.27 +1.12
Mon 16/03 Derry City 0 1.18 -1.18 -0.06
Fri 20/03 Waterford FC 2 2.04 -0.04 -0.10
Fri 03/04 Sligo Rovers 4 3.87 +0.13 +0.03
Mon 06/04 Dundalk FC 0 1.03 -1.03 -1.00
Fri 10/04 Shamrock Rovers 0 0.88 -0.88 -1.88
Fri 17/04 Drogheda United 3 0.67 +2.33 +0.45
Fri 24/04 Bohemian FC 3 1.38 +1.62 +2.07
Fri 01/05 Galway United 2 1.22 +0.78 +2.85
Mon 04/05 Sligo Rovers 1 0.87 +0.13 +2.98
Fri 08/05 Waterford FC 4 3.63 +0.37 +3.35
Fri 15/05 Shelbourne 0 0.65 -0.65 +2.70
Fri 22/05 Derry City 0 0.63 -0.63 +2.07
Fri 29/05 Shamrock Rovers 0 0.78 -0.78 +1.29
Fri 12/06 Drogheda United 2 1.31 +0.69 +1.98
Fri 19/06 Sligo Rovers 2 3.73 -1.73 +0.25
Fri 26/06 Bohemian FC 0 1.14 -1.14 -0.89
Fri 03/07 Galway United 3 2.06 +0.94 +0.05
Fri 10/07 Waterford FC 1 2.55 -1.55 -1.50
Fri 24/07 Dundalk FC 1 1.98 -0.98 -2.48
Sun 02/08 Derry City 1 1.67 -0.67 -3.15
Sun 09/08 Shelbourne 2 3.15 -1.15 -4.30
Fri 21/08 Drogheda United 2 1.83 +0.17 -4.13
Fri 28/08 Waterford FC 0 1.42 -1.42 -5.55
Fri 11/09 Shamrock Rovers 2 1.03 +0.97 -4.58
Mon 14/09 Dundalk FC 4 2.94 +1.06 -3.52
Sat 19/09 Sligo Rovers 1 2.38 -1.38 -4.90

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking → Compare with every club in Europe →

St. Patrick's Athletic xG trend

Current form +1.20 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 22 of 32 matches. The worst was against Bohemian FC on Fri 26/06 (-1.00).

npxG · last 6
2.13
npxGA · last 6
0.92
-1 0 +1 +2 +3 +4 -0.42 Sun 08/02 -0.27 Fri 20/02 +1.55 Fri 27/02 +0.82 Mon 02/03 -0.42 Fri 06/03 +3.03 Fri 13/03 +0.73 Mon 16/03 +1.74 Fri 20/03 +3.58 Fri 03/04 -0.05 Mon 06/04 +0.24 Fri 10/04 -0.16 Fri 17/04 +0.47 Fri 24/04 +0.59 Fri 01/05 -0.27 Mon 04/05 +2.29 Fri 08/05 -0.15 Fri 15/05 -0.13 Fri 22/05 +0.33 Fri 29/05 +0.27 Fri 12/06 +2.88 Fri 19/06 -1.00 Fri 26/06 +1.58 Fri 03/07 +1.12 Fri 10/07 +0.55 Fri 24/07 +1.17 Sun 02/08 +2.03 Sun 09/08 +1.44 Fri 21/08 -0.85 Fri 28/08 +0.14 Fri 11/09 +2.68 Mon 14/09 +1.78 Sat 19/09 +0.85 season avg
St. Patrick's Athletic: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sun 08/02 Bohemian FC 0.31 0.73 -0.42 -0.42
Fri 20/02 Shamrock Rovers 1.07 1.34 -0.27 -0.35
Fri 27/02 Dundalk FC 2.81 1.26 +1.55 +0.29
Mon 02/03 Galway United 1.11 0.29 +0.82 +0.42
Fri 06/03 Shelbourne 1.31 1.73 -0.42 +0.25
Fri 13/03 Drogheda United 4.27 1.24 +3.03 +0.72
Mon 16/03 Derry City 1.18 0.45 +0.73 +0.72
Fri 20/03 Waterford FC 2.04 0.30 +1.74 +0.85
Fri 03/04 Sligo Rovers 3.87 0.29 +3.58 +1.15
Mon 06/04 Dundalk FC 1.03 1.08 -0.05 +1.03
Fri 10/04 Shamrock Rovers 0.88 0.64 +0.24 +0.96
Fri 17/04 Drogheda United 0.67 0.83 -0.16 +0.86
Fri 24/04 Bohemian FC 1.38 0.91 +0.47 +0.83
Fri 01/05 Galway United 1.22 0.63 +0.59 +0.82
Mon 04/05 Sligo Rovers 0.87 1.14 -0.27 +0.74
Fri 08/05 Waterford FC 3.63 1.34 +2.29 +0.84
Fri 15/05 Shelbourne 0.65 0.80 -0.15 +0.78
Fri 22/05 Derry City 0.63 0.76 -0.13 +0.73
Fri 29/05 Shamrock Rovers 0.78 0.45 +0.33 +0.71
Fri 12/06 Drogheda United 1.31 1.04 +0.27 +0.69
Fri 19/06 Sligo Rovers 3.73 0.85 +2.88 +0.79
Fri 26/06 Bohemian FC 1.14 2.14 -1.00 +0.71
Fri 03/07 Galway United 2.06 0.48 +1.58 +0.75
Fri 10/07 Waterford FC 2.55 1.43 +1.12 +0.76
Fri 24/07 Dundalk FC 1.98 1.43 +0.55 +0.76
Sun 02/08 Derry City 1.67 0.50 +1.17 +0.77
Sun 09/08 Shelbourne 3.15 1.12 +2.03 +0.82
Fri 21/08 Drogheda United 1.83 0.39 +1.44 +0.84
Fri 28/08 Waterford FC 1.42 2.27 -0.85 +0.78
Fri 11/09 Shamrock Rovers 1.03 0.89 +0.14 +0.76
Mon 14/09 Dundalk FC 2.94 0.26 +2.68 +0.82
Sat 19/09 Sligo Rovers 2.38 0.60 +1.78 +0.85

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.78 npxG and 0.93 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
tied number 9 hardest of 10 in Premier Division (Ireland)
−0.08 xG vs league average
Over 32 league matches
Last 5
number 9 hardest of 10 in Premier Division (Ireland)
−0.17 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

−0.08 xG vs league average · over 32 matches · tied number 9 hardest of 10

  1. Sligo Rovers Away −0.76
  2. Dundalk FC Away −0.04
  3. Shamrock Rovers Home +0.20
  4. Waterford FC Home +0.09
  5. Drogheda United Away −0.36
  6. Shelbourne Away +0.06
  7. Derry City Home +0.14
  8. Dundalk FC Home −0.04
  9. Waterford FC Away +0.09
  10. Galway United Home −0.33
  11. Bohemian FC Away +0.45
  12. Sligo Rovers Home −0.76
  13. Drogheda United Home −0.36
  14. Shamrock Rovers Away +0.20
  15. Derry City Away +0.14
  16. Shelbourne Home +0.06
  17. Waterford FC Home +0.09
  18. Sligo Rovers Away −0.76
  19. Galway United Away −0.33
  20. Bohemian FC Home +0.45
  21. Drogheda United Away −0.36
  22. Shamrock Rovers Home +0.20
  23. Dundalk FC Away −0.04
  24. Sligo Rovers Home −0.76
  25. Waterford FC Away +0.09
  26. Derry City Home +0.14
  27. Drogheda United Home −0.36
  28. Shelbourne Away +0.06
  29. Galway United Home −0.33
  30. Dundalk FC Home −0.04
  31. Shamrock Rovers Away +0.20
  32. Bohemian FC Away +0.45

Last 5

−0.17 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 9 hardest of 10

  1. Sligo Rovers Away −0.76
  2. Dundalk FC Away −0.04
  3. Shamrock Rovers Home +0.20
  4. Waterford FC Home +0.09
  5. Drogheda United Away −0.36

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

St. Patrick's Athletic shots and chance quality

High volume, average quality. St. Patrick's Athletic take 17.3 shots a match (league 13.8) at 0.10 npxG a shot (league 0.10), #1 in Premier Division (Ireland) for volume and #5 for quality. 64% of their shots come from inside the box (league 64%).

Attack

Shot volume
17.3 shots per match
#1/10
Shot volume (shots per match) across Premier Division (Ireland), best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 St. Patrick's Athletic 17.3
#2 Bohemian FC 16.5
#3 Dundalk FC 16.1
#4 Shelbourne 14.1
#5 Shamrock Rovers 13.8
#6 Derry City 13.7
#7 Waterford FC 13.4
#8 Galway United 12.2
#9 Drogheda United 10.9
#10 Sligo Rovers 9.7
League avg
13.8
Total
553 shots from 32 matches
Chance quality
0.10 npxG per shot
#5/10
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Premier Division (Ireland), best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 Galway United 0.11
#2 Sligo Rovers 0.11
#3 Drogheda United 0.11
#4 Waterford FC 0.10
#5 St. Patrick's Athletic 0.10
#6 Shamrock Rovers 0.10
#7 Bohemian FC 0.10
#8 Shelbourne 0.10
#9 Dundalk FC 0.10
#10 Derry City 0.09
League avg
0.10
Total
56.90 npxG from 553 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
10.3 shots per match
#2/10
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Premier Division (Ireland), best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Bohemian FC 10.0
#2 St. Patrick's Athletic 10.3
#3 Shamrock Rovers 11.0
#4 Derry City 11.2
#5 Shelbourne 12.2
#6 Dundalk FC 13.9
#7 Drogheda United 15.4
#8 Galway United 16.4
#9 Waterford FC 17.6
#10 Sligo Rovers 19.3
League avg
13.8
Total
329 shots allowed from 32 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.09 npxGA per shot
#1/10
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Premier Division (Ireland), best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 St. Patrick's Athletic 0.09
#2 Galway United 0.09
#3 Sligo Rovers 0.10
#4 Shelbourne 0.10
#5 Waterford FC 0.10
#6 Shamrock Rovers 0.10
#7 Drogheda United 0.10
#8 Derry City 0.11
#9 Bohemian FC 0.11
#10 Dundalk FC 0.11
League avg
0.10
Total
29.61 npxGA from 329 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

64% inside the box

League avg 64%

From 352 of 553 shots over 32 matches

Shots allowed, location

63% allowed inside the box

League avg 64%

From 208 of 329 shots allowed over 32 matches

How the shot figures are made →

St. Patrick's Athletic home and away xG

St. Patrick's Athletic per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 16 16
xG / match 2.06 1.50
xGA / match 0.92 0.93
xGD / match +1.14 +0.56
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 2.04 1.70

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every St. Patrick's Athletic match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

Last 5

Matches
5
xG / match
1.92
xGA / match
0.88
xGD / match
+1.04
Points
12 of 15
  1. Sat 19/09 Sligo Rovers A xG 2.38 xGA 0.60 xGD +1.78
  2. Mon 14/09 Dundalk FC A Best underlying xG 2.94 xGA 0.26 xGD +2.68
  3. Fri 11/09 Shamrock Rovers H xG 1.03 xGA 0.89 xGD +0.14
  4. Fri 28/08 Waterford FC H Weakest underlying xG 1.42 xGA 2.27 xGD -0.85
  5. Fri 21/08 Drogheda United A xG 1.83 xGA 0.39 xGD +1.44

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.00. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

St. Patrick's Athletic in Premier Division (Ireland)

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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