Not confirmed yet: the date can still move, and the kickoff time is set nearer the match.
Ipswich Town – Brentford
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Ipswich Town
- 39%
- Draw
- 28%
- Brentford
- 33%
| Ipswich Town | Draw | Brentford | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.56 | 3.57 | 3.04 |
- Total goals
- 3.07
- Over 2.5 goals
- 61%
- Both teams to score
- 67%
One of these teams has only 5 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
Bookmaker prices appear once the league confirms this match's date and kickoff time. Until then the model's preview above is all there is to compare.
Why the model leans Ipswich Town
39% Ipswich Town to win
- Attack
- 11th vs 16th
- Ipswich Town attack v Brentford defence
- Defence
- 19th vs 4th
- Ipswich Town defence v Brentford attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.22 vs +0.34
- xGD per match, last 5
- Projected goals
- 1.60 – 1.47
- Ipswich Town v Brentford
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 5 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Squad news
Ipswich Town
10 listed-
Abdul Fatawu 0% chance
Midfielder · Suspended until 17 Oct
-
George Hirst 0% chance
Forward · Has joined Stoke City permanently
-
Ben Johnson 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Stoke City on loan for the rest of the season
-
Jack Taylor 0% chance
Midfielder · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Chiedozie Ogbene 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Lincoln City on loan until January
-
Ali Al Hamadi 0% chance
Forward · Has joined Sheffield Wednesday on loan for the rest of the season
-
Wes Burns 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Leicester City permanently
-
Cameron Humphreys 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Huddersfield Town on loan for the rest of the season
-
Sam Szmodics 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Derby County on loan for the rest of the season
-
Kayne van Oevelen 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Has joined Valencia on loan for the rest of the season
Brentford
6 listed-
Nathan Collins 0% chance
Defender · Calf injury - Unknown return date
-
Kaye Furo 0% chance
Forward · Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
-
Sepp van den Berg 0% chance
Defender · Groin injury - Unknown return date
-
Mathias Jensen 0% chance
Midfielder · Unspecified injury - Expected back 10 Oct
-
Antoni Milambo 0% chance
Midfielder · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Josh Dasilva 0% chance
Midfielder · Hamstring injury - Expected back 10 Oct
The status, the chance of playing and the note beside each name are Fantasy Premier League's own, and it covers this competition only. Nothing above this section knows about any of it: a rating fitted over recent matches describes the side that played them.
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Ipswich Town | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.53 · 10th | (better) 1.96 · 3rd |
| xGA / match | 1.75 · 15th | (better) 1.26 · 4th |
| xGD / match | -0.22 · 13th | (better) +0.70 · 2nd |
| xPts / match | 1.41 · 11th | (better) 1.66 · 5th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.22 | (better) +0.34 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 32% of the model's distribution.
- Ipswich Town clean sheet
- 20%
- Ipswich Town 2+ goals
- 49%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 39%
- Both teams to score: no
- 33%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.2%
- 2:1
- 9.9%
- 1:2
- 9.0%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
· 1 warning
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Ipswich Town sample
- 5 matches
- Brentford sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Ipswich Town
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Brentford
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Warnings
- Ipswich Town has only 5 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.