Saturday, 17/10/2026 at 16:00
13d 14h to kick-offBrentford – Liverpool
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Brentford
- 38%
- Draw
- 29%
- Liverpool
- 33%
| Brentford | Draw | Liverpool | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.65 | 3.40 | 3.04 |
- Total goals
- 2.84
- Over 2.5 goals
- 56%
- Both teams to score
- 63%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model can't separate them
38% Brentford to win
- Attack
- 4th vs 3rd
- Brentford attack v Liverpool defence
- Defence
- 16th vs 5th
- Brentford defence v Liverpool attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.34 vs +0.62
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.47 – 1.37
- Brentford v Liverpool
Squad news
Brentford
6 listed-
Nathan Collins 0% chance
Defender · Calf injury - Unknown return date
-
Kaye Furo 0% chance
Forward · Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
-
Sepp van den Berg 0% chance
Defender · Groin injury - Unknown return date
-
Mathias Jensen 0% chance
Midfielder · Unspecified injury - Expected back 10 Oct
-
Antoni Milambo 0% chance
Midfielder · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Josh Dasilva 0% chance
Midfielder · Hamstring injury - Expected back 10 Oct
Liverpool
12 listed-
Calvin Ramsay 0% chance
Defender · Has joined St Mirren on loan for the rest of the season
-
Hugo Ekitiké 0% chance
Forward · Achilles injury - Unknown return date
-
Harvey Elliott 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Valencia on loan for the rest of the season
-
Giovanni Leoni 0% chance
Defender · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Armin Pecsi 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Has joined TSV Hartberg on loan for the rest of the season
-
Vitezslav Jaros 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Stefan Bajčetić Maquieira 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Celta Vigo permanently
-
Conor Bradley 0% chance
Defender · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Federico Chiesa 0% chance
Midfielder · Back injury - Unknown return date
-
Curtis Jones 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Internazionale permanently
-
Alexander Isak 75% chance
Forward · Thigh injury - 75% chance of playing
-
Cody Gakpo 75% chance
Midfielder · Ankle injury - 75% chance of playing
The status, the chance of playing and the note beside each name are Fantasy Premier League's own, and it covers this competition only. Nothing above this section knows about any of it: a rating fitted over recent matches describes the side that played them.
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Brentford | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.96 · 3rd | 1.67 · 7th |
| xGA / match | 1.26 · 4th | (better) 1.22 · 3rd |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.70 · 2nd | +0.45 · 7th |
| xPts / match | 1.66 · 5th | (better) 1.69 · 4th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.34 | (better) +0.62 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- Brentford clean sheet
- 23%
- Brentford 2+ goals
- 45%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 44%
- Both teams to score: no
- 37%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.5%
- 2:1
- 10.0%
- 1:2
- 9.2%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Brentford sample
- 20 matches
- Liverpool sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Brentford
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Liverpool
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.