Saturday, 10/10/2026 at 16:00
6d 16h to kick-offIpswich Town – Fulham
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Best odds updated 10 October, 12:00
What the model expects
- Ipswich Town
- 40%
- Draw
- 28%
- Fulham
- 32%
| Ipswich Town | Draw | Fulham | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.52 | 3.55 | 3.11 |
- Total goals
- 3.04
- Over 2.5 goals
- 60%
- Both teams to score
- 66%
One of these teams has only 5 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 6 outcomes.
-
Ipswich Town
- Model
- 39.7%
- Market, margin removed
- 34.1%
- Probability gap
- +5.6 pp
- Edge
- +9.2%
- Fair odds
- 2.52
- Market odds
- 2.75 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.65
- Bookmaker margin
- 6.6%
-
Draw
- Model
- 28.1%
- Market, margin removed
- 27.6%
- Probability gap
- +0.6 pp
- Edge
- −4.3%
- Fair odds
- 3.55
- Market odds
- 3.40 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.73
- Bookmaker margin
- 6.6%
-
Fulham
- Model
- 32.2%
- Market, margin removed
- 38.3%
- Probability gap
- −6.1 pp
- Edge
- −21.2%
- Fair odds
- 3.11
- Market odds
- 2.45 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.27
- Bookmaker margin
- 6.6%
Outcomes with value
Ipswich Town to win
Measured model skill on this market: +7.19%.
Ipswich Town 2+ goals
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
Ipswich Town to score
Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Over 2.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Over 1.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Best opportunity
Ipswich Town to win
Model 39.7% vs. bookmaker 34.1%, margin removed.
Match result
Measured model skill on this market: +7.19%.
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Goals by team
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model disagrees with the market
The leading outcome: Ipswich Town to win
What the model's reading is made of
- The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 5 matches. Everything behind this edge rests on that, which is too little to set out as a reason.
These are the parts of the model's own number, not an account of the bookmaker's. The fit reads two ratings a side, the competition's average home and away expected goals, the window it looks back over and how many matches it found in it — and nothing else is a reason this page can give.
What the model did not read
| Reading | Ipswich Town | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| Form — xG difference, the last 6 matches | -0.22 | +0.08 |
| Goals scored minus expected | -0.67 | -2.81 |
| Points won minus expected | -1.03 | -3.86 |
| npxG per shot | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| Players the fantasy feed has flagged | 10 | 3 |
All of this is in the database and none of it entered the fit. A reading here may point the other way from every line above it — where it does, both are true, and only one of them is in the model.
Why the model leans Ipswich Town
40% Ipswich Town to win
- Attack
- 11th vs 15th
- Ipswich Town attack v Fulham defence
- Defence
- 19th vs 6th
- Ipswich Town defence v Fulham attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.22 vs +0.08
- xGD per match, last 5
- Projected goals
- 1.60 – 1.44
- Ipswich Town v Fulham
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 5 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Squad news
Ipswich Town
10 listed-
Abdul Fatawu 0% chance
Midfielder · Suspended until 17 Oct
-
George Hirst 0% chance
Forward · Has joined Stoke City permanently
-
Ben Johnson 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Stoke City on loan for the rest of the season
-
Jack Taylor 0% chance
Midfielder · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Chiedozie Ogbene 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Lincoln City on loan until January
-
Ali Al Hamadi 0% chance
Forward · Has joined Sheffield Wednesday on loan for the rest of the season
-
Wes Burns 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Leicester City permanently
-
Cameron Humphreys 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Huddersfield Town on loan for the rest of the season
-
Sam Szmodics 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Derby County on loan for the rest of the season
-
Kayne van Oevelen 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Has joined Valencia on loan for the rest of the season
Fulham
3 listed-
Luc De Fougerolles 0% chance
Defender · has joined Real Salt Lake on loan for the rest of the seaon.
-
Alfie McNally 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Has joined York City on loan for the rest of the season
-
Tom Cairney 0% chance
Midfielder · Knee injury - Expected back 10 Oct
The status, the chance of playing and the note beside each name are Fantasy Premier League's own, and it covers this competition only. Nothing above this section knows about any of it: a rating fitted over recent matches describes the side that played them.
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Ipswich Town | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.53 · 10th | (better) 1.56 · 8th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.75 · 15th | 1.77 · 16th |
| xGD / match | -0.22 · 13th | (better) -0.21 · 12th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.41 · 11th | 1.17 · 14th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.22 | (better) +0.08 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 32% of the model's distribution.
- Ipswich Town clean sheet
- 21%
- Ipswich Town 2+ goals
- 49%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 40%
- Both teams to score: no
- 34%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.3%
- 2:1
- 10.1%
- 1:2
- 8.9%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
· 1 warning
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Ipswich Town sample
- 5 matches
- Fulham sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Ipswich Town
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Fulham
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
- Odds updated
- 1 minute ago
Warnings
- Ipswich Town has only 5 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.