Not confirmed yet: the date can still move, and the kickoff time is set nearer the match.
Manchester City – Liverpool
Model updated 4 October, 03:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Manchester City
- 46%
- Draw
- 28%
- Liverpool
- 26%
| Manchester City | Draw | Liverpool | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.18 | 3.56 | 3.82 |
- Total goals
- 2.96
- Over 2.5 goals
- 59%
- Both teams to score
- 65%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Bookmaker prices appear once the league confirms this match's date and kickoff time. Until then the model's preview above is all there is to compare.
Why the model leans Manchester City
46% Manchester City to win
- Attack
- 2nd vs 3rd
- Manchester City attack v Liverpool defence
- Defence
- 5th vs 5th
- Manchester City defence v Liverpool attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.47 vs +0.62
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.69 – 1.27
- Manchester City v Liverpool
Squad news
Manchester City
9 listed-
Phil Foden 0% chance
Midfielder · Suspended until 17 Oct
-
Divine Mukasa 0% chance
Midfielder · has joined West Ham on loan for the rest of the seaon.
-
Max Alleyne 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Burnley on loan for the rest of the season
-
Tijjani Reijnders 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Al Qadsiah permanently
-
Claudio Echeverri 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Benfica on loan for the rest of the season
-
Kalvin Phillips 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Sheffield United on loan for the rest of the season
-
Jeremy Monga 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Swansea City on loan for the rest of the season
-
Rodri 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Barcelona permanently
-
Antoine Semenyo 75% chance
Midfielder · Ankle injury - 75% chance of playing
Liverpool
12 listed-
Calvin Ramsay 0% chance
Defender · Has joined St Mirren on loan for the rest of the season
-
Hugo Ekitiké 0% chance
Forward · Achilles injury - Unknown return date
-
Harvey Elliott 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Valencia on loan for the rest of the season
-
Giovanni Leoni 0% chance
Defender · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Armin Pecsi 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Has joined TSV Hartberg on loan for the rest of the season
-
Vitezslav Jaros 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Stefan Bajčetić Maquieira 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Celta Vigo permanently
-
Conor Bradley 0% chance
Defender · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Federico Chiesa 0% chance
Midfielder · Back injury - Unknown return date
-
Curtis Jones 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Internazionale permanently
-
Alexander Isak 75% chance
Forward · Thigh injury - 75% chance of playing
-
Cody Gakpo 75% chance
Midfielder · Ankle injury - 75% chance of playing
The status, the chance of playing and the note beside each name are Fantasy Premier League's own, and it covers this competition only. Nothing above this section knows about any of it: a rating fitted over recent matches describes the side that played them.
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Manchester City | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.10 · 2nd | 1.67 · 7th |
| xGA / match | 1.45 · 9th | (better) 1.22 · 3rd |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.65 · 3rd | +0.45 · 7th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.87 · 2nd | 1.69 · 4th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.47 | (better) +0.62 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 33% of the model's distribution.
- Manchester City clean sheet
- 25%
- Manchester City 2+ goals
- 52%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 41%
- Both teams to score: no
- 35%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.6%
- 2:1
- 11.0%
- 1:2
- 8.0%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Manchester City sample
- 20 matches
- Liverpool sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Manchester City
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Liverpool
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 03:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.