Not confirmed yet: the date can still move, and the kickoff time is set nearer the match.
Newcastle United – Chelsea
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Newcastle United
- 32%
- Draw
- 29%
- Chelsea
- 39%
| Newcastle United | Draw | Chelsea | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.17 | 3.43 | 2.54 |
- Total goals
- 2.89
- Over 2.5 goals
- 57%
- Both teams to score
- 64%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Bookmaker prices appear once the league confirms this match's date and kickoff time. Until then the model's preview above is all there is to compare.
Why the model leans Chelsea
39% Chelsea to win
- Attack
- 10th vs 20th
- Chelsea attack v Newcastle United defence
- Defence
- 11th vs 19th
- Chelsea defence v Newcastle United attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.42 vs -0.89
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.36 – 1.52
- Newcastle United v Chelsea
Squad news
Newcastle United
12 listed-
Anthony Elanga 0% chance
Midfielder · Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
-
Amar Dedic 0% chance
Defender · Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
-
Dan Burn 0% chance
Defender · Ankle injury - Expected back 12 Oct
-
Nick Woltemade 0% chance
Forward · Has joined Juventus on loan for the rest of the season
-
Sean Neave 0% chance
Forward · Has joined Wolves on loan for the rest of the season
-
William Osula 0% chance
Forward · Foot injury - Unknown return date
-
Jacob Ramsey 0% chance
Midfielder · Thigh injury - Unknown return date
-
Leo Shahar 0% chance
Defender · has joined Arouca on loan for the rest of the seaon.
-
Alex Murphy 0% chance
Defender · Has joined FC Kaiserslautern on loan for the rest of the season
-
Joelinton 0% chance
Midfielder · Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
-
Ewen Jaouen 50% chance
Goalkeeper · Ankle injury - 50% chance of playing
-
Tino Livramento 75% chance
Defender · Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
Chelsea
14 listed-
Robert Lynch Sánchez 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Has joined Como on loan for the rest of the season
-
Marc Guiu Paz 0% chance
Forward · Has joined RB Leipzig permanently
-
Dário Essugo 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined RC Strasbourg on loan for the rest of the season
-
Trevoh Chalobah 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Como permanently
-
Emmanuel Emegha 0% chance
Forward · Hamstring injury - Expected back 10 Oct
-
Benoît Badiashile Mukinayi 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Napoli on loan for the rest of the season
-
Filip Jörgensen 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Has joined RC Strasbourg on loan for the rest of the season
-
Mamadou Sarr 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Real Sociedad on loan for the rest of the season
-
Moisés Caicedo 50% chance
Midfielder · Calf injury - 50% chance of playing
-
Marco Palestra 50% chance
Defender · Thigh injury - 50% chance of playing
-
João Pedro 75% chance
Forward · Knee injury - 75% chance of playing
-
Cole Palmer 75% chance
Midfielder · Muscular injury - 75% chance of playing
-
Reece James 75% chance
Defender · Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
-
Jamie Bynoe-Gittens 75% chance
Midfielder · Ankle injury - 75% chance of playing
The status, the chance of playing and the note beside each name are Fantasy Premier League's own, and it covers this competition only. Nothing above this section knows about any of it: a rating fitted over recent matches describes the side that played them.
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Newcastle United | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.07 · 17th | (better) 1.47 · 11th |
| xGA / match | 1.83 · 18th | (better) 1.78 · 17th |
| xGD / match | -0.76 · 19th | (better) -0.31 · 14th |
| xPts / match | 0.82 · 20th | (better) 1.16 · 15th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.89 | (better) -0.42 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 33% of the model's distribution.
- Chelsea clean sheet
- 23%
- Chelsea 2+ goals
- 46%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 43%
- Both teams to score: no
- 36%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.2%
- 1:2
- 10.2%
- 2:1
- 9.0%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Newcastle United sample
- 20 matches
- Chelsea sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Newcastle United
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Chelsea
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.