Not confirmed yet: the date can still move, and the kickoff time is set nearer the match.
Newcastle United – Crystal Palace
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Newcastle United
- 37%
- Draw
- 30%
- Crystal Palace
- 33%
| Newcastle United | Draw | Crystal Palace | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.74 | 3.31 | 3.01 |
- Total goals
- 2.72
- Over 2.5 goals
- 53%
- Both teams to score
- 61%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Bookmaker prices appear once the league confirms this match's date and kickoff time. Until then the model's preview above is all there is to compare.
Why the model can't separate them
37% Newcastle United to win
- Attack
- 19th vs 14th
- Newcastle United attack v Crystal Palace defence
- Defence
- 20th vs 18th
- Newcastle United defence v Crystal Palace attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.89 vs -0.79
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.39 – 1.33
- Newcastle United v Crystal Palace
Squad news
Newcastle United
12 listed-
Anthony Elanga 0% chance
Midfielder · Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
-
Amar Dedic 0% chance
Defender · Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
-
Dan Burn 0% chance
Defender · Ankle injury - Expected back 12 Oct
-
Nick Woltemade 0% chance
Forward · Has joined Juventus on loan for the rest of the season
-
Sean Neave 0% chance
Forward · Has joined Wolves on loan for the rest of the season
-
William Osula 0% chance
Forward · Foot injury - Unknown return date
-
Jacob Ramsey 0% chance
Midfielder · Thigh injury - Unknown return date
-
Leo Shahar 0% chance
Defender · has joined Arouca on loan for the rest of the seaon.
-
Alex Murphy 0% chance
Defender · Has joined FC Kaiserslautern on loan for the rest of the season
-
Joelinton 0% chance
Midfielder · Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
-
Ewen Jaouen 50% chance
Goalkeeper · Ankle injury - 50% chance of playing
-
Tino Livramento 75% chance
Defender · Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
Crystal Palace
12 listed-
Jean-Philippe Mateta 0% chance
Forward · Hamstring injury - Expected back 11 Oct
-
Dean Henderson 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Foot injury - Expected back 11 Oct
-
Axel Disasi 0% chance
Defender · Suspended until 25 Oct
-
Rio Cardines 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Bristol City on loan for the rest of the season
-
Romain Esse 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Millwall on loan for the rest of the season
-
Jesurun Rak-Sakyi 0% chance
Midfielder · has joined Kasimpasa on loan for the rest of the seaon.
-
Justin Devenny 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Stoke City permanently
-
Christantus Uche 0% chance
Forward · has returned to Getafe CF
-
Matheus França 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Alverca on loan for the rest of the season
-
Borna Sosa 0% chance
Defender · Has joined FC Cologne on loan for the rest of the season
-
Chadi Riad Dnanou 0% chance
Defender · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Takehiro Tomiyasu 75% chance
Defender · Calf injury - 75% chance of playing
The status, the chance of playing and the note beside each name are Fantasy Premier League's own, and it covers this competition only. Nothing above this section knows about any of it: a rating fitted over recent matches describes the side that played them.
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Newcastle United | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.07 · 17th | (better) 1.25 · 15th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.83 · 18th | 1.89 · 20th |
| xGD / match | -0.76 · 19th | (better) -0.64 · 17th |
| xPts / match | 0.82 · 20th | (better) 0.95 · 17th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.89 | (better) -0.79 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- Newcastle United clean sheet
- 24%
- Newcastle United 2+ goals
- 42%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 47%
- Both teams to score: no
- 39%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.2%
- 2:1
- 9.8%
- 1:2
- 9.3%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Newcastle United sample
- 20 matches
- Crystal Palace sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Newcastle United
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Crystal Palace
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.