Premier League odds: performance 2026/2027
Estimates from a statistical model, published for reading rather than as betting advice. A positive value is a statement about an average over a long run, not about the match in front of you.
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How the Premier League qualified selections in History have done, on an equal stake of one unit each. The record starts when the live feed started, and nothing in it was added afterwards.
How these figures are counted
- Staking
- A flat 1 unit on every selection. A win returns the price less the stake, a loss costs the stake, and a void returns it.
- Which selections count
- A selection counts if it was a qualified edge at the model's last evaluation before kickoff: a price fresh by the odds schedule at that moment and captured no later than the evaluation, full model data, a market with measured skill, and an edge from 5% up to but not including 40%. The same rule as the live board's.
- Odds source
- The best price across the bookmakers in the odds feed, at the last capture before kickoff.
- When prices are captured
- On the feed's schedule, more often as kickoff approaches. History shows when each price was captured.
- Frozen, never backfilled
- Every selection is frozen at kickoff. Nothing evaluated or priced at or after kickoff is counted, and no selection is ever added afterwards. ROI is shown from 30 settled selections.
2026/2027 so far
- Settled
- 45
- Won
- 15
- Lost
- 30
- Void
- 0
- Staked
- 45.00u
- Profit
- −9.94u
- ROI
- −22.1%
- Average price
- 3.18
- Win rate
- 33.3% against 39.2% average implied probability
Cumulative units
Show as table
| Settled | That day | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|
| 25 Aug | +1.11u | +1.11u |
| 29 Aug | −2.50u | −1.39u |
| 30 Aug | −5.00u | −6.39u |
| 1 Sep | −1.80u | −8.19u |
| 6 Sep | −3.00u | −11.19u |
| 7 Sep | −1.00u | −12.19u |
| 13 Sep | −5.25u | −17.44u |
| 14 Sep | −1.00u | −18.44u |
| 15 Sep | +1.10u | −17.34u |
| 21 Sep | +7.40u | −9.94u |
By market
| Market | Settled | Won | Profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home team to score | 6 | 3 | −1.64u | — |
| Away team to score | 7 | 1 | −5.20u | — |
| Full-time result (1X2) | 10 | 0 | −10.00u | — |
| Home team 2+ goals | 11 | 5 | +2.10u | — |
| Away team 2+ goals | 11 | 6 | +4.80u | — |
A market's ROI is shown from 30 settled selections in it.