NK Olimpija Ljubljana 3:0 Brinje Grosuplje: xG & match report · PrvaLiga (Slovenia)

Saturday, 05/09/2026 at 20:15

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Match report · PrvaLiga (Slovenia)

NK Olimpija Ljubljana Home 2.87 xG

Brinje Grosuplje Away 0.90 xG

30 The scoreline reflected the chances

NK Olimpija Ljubljana were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 49%. They won 3–0. The biggest difference was NK Olimpija Ljubljana's attack: 2.87 xG against 1.45 projected (+1.42).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

NK Olimpija Ljubljana: 49% What happened
Draw: 31%
Brinje Grosuplje: 20%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 3 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

NK Olimpija Ljubljana 1.45 2.87 +1.42

Brinje Grosuplje 0.89 0.90 +0.01

NK Olimpija Ljubljana produced 1.42 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

NK Olimpija Ljubljana Brinje Grosuplje

Shots: 12; 7
On target: 6; 1
Inside the box: 8; 1
xG per shot: 0.24; 0.13

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

NK Olimpija Ljubljana

1.46 xG created 1.22 xGA

L 1.12 created, 0.30 conceded against NŠ Mura
W 2.12 created, 0.56 conceded against NK Aluminij Kidričevo
L 0.44 created, 1.59 conceded against NK Celje
D 0.46 created, 0.97 conceded against NK Maribor
W 1.92 created, 2.62 conceded against NK Nafta Lendava 1903
D 2.70 created, 1.27 conceded against Kalcer Radomlje

Brinje Grosuplje

1.22 xG created 1.84 xGA

L 0.35 created, 1.38 conceded against NK Maribor
D 0.69 created, 1.67 conceded against FC Koper
D 2.07 created, 1.28 conceded against NK Bravo
L 1.48 created, 1.72 conceded against NŠ Mura
L 1.20 created, 3.53 conceded against NK Aluminij Kidričevo
W 1.56 created, 1.48 conceded against NK Celje

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged0 won3 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on NK Olimpija Ljubljana against Brinje Grosuplje before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Under 2.5 goals	2.05	+18.9%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	4.00	+12.3%	Lost
Draw	3.60	+11.5%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
NK Olimpija Ljubljana	48.9%	54.8%	−5.9 pp	2.04
Draw	31.0%	25.1%	+5.9 pp	3.23
Brinje Grosuplje	20.1%	20.1%	+0.0 pp	4.98

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	50.6%	50.0%	+0.6 pp	1.98
Both teams not to score	49.4%	50.0%	−0.6 pp	2.03
Over 1.5 goals	71.9%	76.6%	−4.7 pp	1.39
Under 1.5 goals	28.1%	23.4%	+4.7 pp	3.56
Over 2.5 goals	42.0%	53.9%	−11.9 pp	2.38
Under 2.5 goals	58.0%	46.1%	+11.9 pp	1.72

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
NK Olimpija Ljubljana sample: 20 matches
Brinje Grosuplje sample: 3 matches
Computed: 5 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 5 hours before kick-off

Warnings

Brinje Grosuplje has only 3 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.