NŠ Mura 0:0 NK Celje: xG & match report · PrvaLiga (Slovenia)

Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 17:30

Full time

Match report · PrvaLiga (Slovenia)

NŠ Mura Home 0.41 xG

NK Celje Away 0.40 xG

00 The chances were evenly matched

NŠ Mura were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 42%. It finished 0–0. The biggest difference was NŠ Mura's attack: 0.41 xG against 1.55 projected (−1.14). NK Celje produced 0.40 xG against 1.25 projected (−0.85).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

NŠ Mura: 42%
Draw: 29% What happened
NK Celje: 28%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

NŠ Mura 1.55 0.41 -1.14

NK Celje 1.25 0.40 -0.85

NŠ Mura produced 1.14 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

NŠ Mura NK Celje

Shots: 6; 10
On target: 0; 4
Inside the box: 4; 3
xG per shot: 0.07; 0.04

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

NŠ Mura

1.51 xG created 1.53 xGA

L 1.24 created, 1.66 conceded against Kalcer Radomlje
W 1.72 created, 1.48 conceded against Brinje Grosuplje
L 1.06 created, 1.14 conceded against FC Koper
L 2.42 created, 1.63 conceded against NK Bravo
D 0.58 created, 1.38 conceded against NK Maribor
L 2.01 created, 1.89 conceded against NK Aluminij Kidričevo

NK Celje

1.74 xG created 1.17 xGA

D 1.35 created, 1.44 conceded against NK Maribor
W 1.59 created, 0.44 conceded against NK Olimpija Ljubljana
W 2.11 created, 1.29 conceded against NK Nafta Lendava 1903
L 1.48 created, 1.56 conceded against Brinje Grosuplje
L 2.11 created, 1.88 conceded against FC Koper
L 1.77 created, 0.42 conceded against NK Bravo

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

NŠ Mura: 1 won · 1 drawn · 3 lost

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged1 won3 lost

Lost
Won
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on NŠ Mura against NK Celje before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
NŠ Mura to win	3.80	+61.4%	Lost
Draw	3.80	+11.6%	Won
Both teams to score	1.73	+7.5%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.25	+1.4%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
NŠ Mura	42.5%	24.0%	+18.5 pp	2.35
Draw	29.4%	24.0%	+5.4 pp	3.40
NK Celje	28.1%	52.1%	−23.9 pp	3.55

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	62.2%	53.7%	+8.6 pp	1.61
Both teams not to score	37.8%	46.3%	−8.6 pp	2.65
Over 1.5 goals	81.1%	75.0%	+6.1 pp	1.23
Under 1.5 goals	18.9%	25.0%	−6.1 pp	5.30
Over 2.5 goals	54.7%	52.6%	+2.1 pp	1.83
Under 2.5 goals	45.3%	47.4%	−2.1 pp	2.21

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
NŠ Mura sample: 20 matches
NK Celje sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 day before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.