Thursday, 17/09/2026 at 17:30
Full timeAkron Togliatti 2:0 Akhmat Grozny
Akhmat Grozny were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 39%. Akron Togliatti won 2–0.
The model against the result
- Akron Togliatti
- 32% What happened
- Draw
- 29%
- Akhmat Grozny
- 39%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Recent form
1.24 xG created 1.89 xGA
- W 0.51 created, 1.17 conceded against Baltika Kaliningrad
- L 0.35 created, 1.30 conceded against FK Krasnodar
- L 1.76 created, 1.29 conceded against FC Rostov
- L 2.02 created, 4.23 conceded against Krylya Sovetov Samara
- W 1.53 created, 1.01 conceded against Rotor Volgograd
- L 1.28 created, 2.35 conceded against Rotor Volgograd
1.16 xG created 1.43 xGA
- D 0.62 created, 2.25 conceded against Baltika Kaliningrad
- L 0.60 created, 2.00 conceded against Zenit St. Petersburg
- W 2.03 created, 1.07 conceded against Pari Nizhny Novgorod
- D 0.97 created, 0.66 conceded against Dinamo Makhachkala
- D 0.86 created, 1.15 conceded against FC Sochi
- D 1.87 created, 1.44 conceded against Lokomotiv Moscow
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
3 opportunities flagged1 won2 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.83 | +6.2% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.52 | +1.7% | Lost |
| Akron Togliatti to win | 3.14 | +0.2% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akron Togliatti | 31.9% | 30.2% | +1.7 pp | 3.14 |
| Draw | 28.9% | 26.9% | +2.0 pp | 3.46 |
| Akhmat Grozny | 39.2% | 42.9% | −3.7 pp | 2.55 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.9% | 52.2% | +5.8 pp | 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.1% | 47.8% | −5.8 pp | 2.38 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Akron Togliatti sample
- 20 matches
- Akhmat Grozny sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.