Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 19:45
Full timeCSKA Moscow 1:1 Rubin Kazan
CSKA Moscow were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 45%. It finished 1–1.
The model against the result
- CSKA Moscow
- 45%
- Draw
- 29% What happened
- Rubin Kazan
- 26%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Recent form
1.21 xG created 1.56 xGA
- D 0.17 created, 0.90 conceded against Krylya Sovetov Samara
- D 0.85 created, 0.72 conceded against FC Rostov
- D 1.18 created, 1.88 conceded against Rubin Kazan
- L 1.35 created, 1.93 conceded against Zenit St. Petersburg
- W 2.54 created, 1.87 conceded against Pari Nizhny Novgorod
- W 1.19 created, 2.03 conceded against Lokomotiv Moscow
1.26 xG created 1.39 xGA
- D 1.94 created, 0.65 conceded against Akron Togliatti
- W 1.65 created, 1.43 conceded against Dynamo Moscow
- D 1.88 created, 1.18 conceded against CSKA Moscow
- W 0.30 created, 0.44 conceded against Baltika Kaliningrad
- L 0.97 created, 2.17 conceded against FC Spartak Moscow
- L 0.79 created, 2.49 conceded against FK Krasnodar
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
2 opportunities flagged1 won1 lost
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rubin Kazan to win | 5.25 | +35.7% | Lost |
| Draw | 4.04 | +17.8% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSKA Moscow | 45.0% | 58.0% | −13.0 pp | 2.22 |
| Draw | 29.2% | 23.7% | +5.4 pp | 3.43 |
| Rubin Kazan | 25.9% | 18.3% | +7.6 pp | 3.87 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.6% | 53.2% | +0.4 pp | 1.86 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.4% | 46.8% | −0.4 pp | 2.16 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- CSKA Moscow sample
- 20 matches
- Rubin Kazan sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 4 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 4 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.