Juventus 1:1 Milan: xG & match report · Serie A

Sunday, 06/09/2026 at 20:45

Full time

Match report · Serie A

Juventus Home 1.59 xG · 14 shots

Milan Away 0.11 xG · 3 shots

11 Juventus had the better chances, but it finished level

Juventus were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 54%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was Milan's attack: 0.11 xG against 0.85 projected (−0.74).

Goals

68' Alphadjo Cissè Milan · 0.04 xG chance 0–1
90' Federico Gatti Juventus · 0.29 xG chance 1–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Juventus: 54%
Draw: 29% What happened
Milan: 17%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Juventus 1.57 1.59 +0.02

Milan 0.85 0.11 -0.74

Milan produced 0.74 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Juventus Milan

Shots: 14; 3
On target: 5; 1
Inside the box: 6; 1
xG per shot: 0.12; 0.03
Open play xG: 1.18; 0.10
Set-piece xG: 0.49; 0.00
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.61 for Juventus and 0.09 for Milan.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

17 shots · 1.77 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Juventus
Milan
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Juventus

2.09 xG created 0.53 xGA

D 2.60 created, 0.30 conceded against Hellas Verona
W 2.29 created, 0.88 conceded against Lecce
L 1.98 created, 0.47 conceded against Fiorentina
D 1.92 created, 0.85 conceded against Torino
W 2.18 created, 0.41 conceded against Frosinone
W 1.58 created, 0.25 conceded against Parma

Milan

1.72 xG created 1.53 xGA

L 0.24 created, 1.58 conceded against Sassuolo
L 2.21 created, 1.38 conceded against Atalanta
W 1.75 created, 1.32 conceded against Genoa
L 1.74 created, 2.78 conceded against Cagliari
W 2.15 created, 1.29 conceded against Torino
W 2.21 created, 0.80 conceded against Venezia

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Juventus: 0 won · 2 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

2 opportunities flagged1 won1 lost

Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Juventus against Milan before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Juventus to win	2.15	+15.4%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.36	+0.6%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Juventus	53.7%	44.5%	+9.1 pp	1.86
Draw	29.2%	29.9%	−0.7 pp	3.42
Milan	17.1%	25.5%	−8.4 pp	5.84

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	50.7%	50.0%	+0.7 pp	1.97
Both teams not to score	49.3%	50.0%	−0.7 pp	2.03
Over 1.5 goals	73.7%	70.1%	+3.6 pp	1.36
Under 1.5 goals	26.3%	29.9%	−3.6 pp	3.81
Over 2.5 goals	44.4%	45.1%	−0.8 pp	2.25
Under 2.5 goals	55.6%	54.9%	+0.8 pp	1.80

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Juventus sample: 20 matches
Milan sample: 20 matches
Computed: 6 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 6 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.