Milan 2:1 Fiorentina: xG & match report · Serie A

Sunday, 19/10/2025 at 20:45

Full time

Match report · Serie A

Milan Home 1.98 xG · 14 shots

Fiorentina Away 1.08 xG · 5 shots

21 The scoreline reflected the chances

Goals

55' Robin Gosens Fiorentina · 1.00 xG chance 0–1
63' Rafael Leão Milan · 0.02 xG chance 1–1
86' Rafael Leão (pen.) Milan · 0.82 xG chance 2–1

The shots behind it

Milan Fiorentina

Shots: 14; 5
On target: 4; 1
Inside the box: 10; 2
xG per shot: 0.14; 0.23
Open play xG: 0.58; 0.16
Set-piece xG: 0.62; 1.00
Penalties: 1; 0

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.19 for Milan and 1.14 for Fiorentina.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

19 shots · 3.18 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Milan
Fiorentina
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Milan

1.44 xG created 0.85 xGA

L 1.88 created, 0.21 conceded against Cremonese
W 1.85 created, 0.30 conceded against Lecce
W 1.00 created, 0.17 conceded against Bologna
W 1.44 created, 0.34 conceded against Udinese
W 0.75 created, 2.96 conceded against Napoli
D 1.74 created, 1.13 conceded against Juventus

Fiorentina

1.14 xG created 1.47 xGA

D 0.98 created, 1.13 conceded against Cagliari
D 1.74 created, 1.02 conceded against Torino
L 1.65 created, 3.29 conceded against Napoli
L 0.49 created, 1.25 conceded against Como
D 0.89 created, 0.80 conceded against Pisa
L 1.10 created, 1.35 conceded against Roma

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Model details

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The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.