Udinese 0:1 Cagliari: xG & match report · Serie A

Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 15:00

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Match report · Serie A

Udinese Home 2.13 xG · 26 shots

Cagliari Away 1.12 xG · 5 shots

01 The result went against the chances

Udinese were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 40%. Cagliari won 1–0. The biggest difference was Udinese's attack: 2.13 xG against 1.37 projected (+0.76).

Goals

54' Daniel Maldini Cagliari · 0.85 xG chance 0–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Udinese: 40%
Draw: 31%
Cagliari: 29% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Udinese 1.37 2.13 +0.76

Cagliari 1.16 1.12 -0.04

Udinese produced 0.76 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Udinese Cagliari

Shots: 26; 5
On target: 5; 2
Inside the box: 17; 3
xG per shot: 0.07; 0.23
Open play xG: 1.27; 1.17
Set-piece xG: 0.64; 0.00
Penalties: —; —

Udinese's shots add up to 1.91 xG and Cagliari's to 1.17; the published figures are 2.13 and 1.12.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

31 shots · 3.08 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Udinese
Cagliari
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Udinese

0.94 xG created 1.71 xGA

L 0.35 created, 0.45 conceded against Cremonese
L 0.37 created, 1.76 conceded against Napoli
D 2.14 created, 1.50 conceded against Como
W 0.98 created, 1.70 conceded against Monza
L 0.85 created, 1.83 conceded against Lazio
L 0.92 created, 3.05 conceded against Inter

Cagliari

1.41 xG created 1.57 xGA

W 1.32 created, 0.99 conceded against Torino
W 2.78 created, 1.74 conceded against Milan
W 0.94 created, 0.75 conceded against Parma
L 0.48 created, 3.67 conceded against Inter
W 1.61 created, 0.50 conceded against Lecce
W 1.32 created, 1.74 conceded against Atalanta

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Udinese: 1 won · 1 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged0 won3 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Udinese against Cagliari before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	3.30	+3.2%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.80	+2.6%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.33	+1.4%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Udinese	39.6%	43.2%	−3.6 pp	2.52
Draw	31.3%	28.8%	+2.5 pp	3.20
Cagliari	29.1%	28.0%	+1.1 pp	3.44

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Udinese to score	77.3%	75.0%	+2.3 pp	1.29
Udinese not to score	22.7%	25.0%	−2.3 pp	4.40
Cagliari to score	71.4%	66.3%	+5.1 pp	1.40
Cagliari not to score	28.6%	33.7%	−5.1 pp	3.50
Both teams to score	57.0%	52.0%	+5.0 pp	1.75
Both teams not to score	43.0%	48.0%	−5.0 pp	2.33
Udinese 2+ goals	40.7%	42.3%	−1.6 pp	2.46
Udinese at most 1 goal	59.3%	57.7%	+1.6 pp	1.69
Cagliari 2+ goals	32.6%	31.3%	+1.4 pp	3.06
Cagliari at most 1 goal	67.4%	68.7%	−1.4 pp	1.48
Over 1.5 goals	76.1%	71.8%	+4.2 pp	1.31
Under 1.5 goals	23.9%	28.2%	−4.2 pp	4.18
Over 2.5 goals	47.3%	45.1%	+2.2 pp	2.11
Under 2.5 goals	52.7%	54.9%	−2.2 pp	1.90

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Udinese sample: 20 matches
Cagliari sample: 20 matches
Computed: 6 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 6 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.