Sunday, 25/10/2026 at 17:00
21d 15h to kick-offNPS Volos – Panathinaikos
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- NPS Volos
- 24%
- Draw
- 31%
- Panathinaikos
- 45%
| NPS Volos | Draw | Panathinaikos | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 4.20 | 3.18 | 2.24 |
- Total goals
- 2.39
- Over 2.5 goals
- 44%
- Both teams to score
- 53%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Panathinaikos
45% Panathinaikos to win
- Attack
- 3rd vs 12th
- Panathinaikos attack v NPS Volos defence
- Defence
- 3rd vs 12th
- Panathinaikos defence v NPS Volos attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.40 vs -0.58
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 0.99 – 1.40
- NPS Volos v Panathinaikos
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | NPS Volos | Panathinaikos |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.93 · 10th | (better) 2.13 · 1st from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | 1.53 · 11th | (better) 0.81 · 3rd from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | -0.60 · 10th | (better) +1.31 · 1st from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | 0.94 · 12th | (better) 2.17 · 2nd from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.58 | (better) +0.40 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 37% of the model's distribution.
- Panathinaikos clean sheet
- 34%
- Panathinaikos 2+ goals
- 42%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 56%
- Both teams to score: no
- 47%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.2%
- 1:2
- 10.6%
- 0:1
- 10.5%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- NPS Volos sample
- 20 matches
- Panathinaikos sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · NPS Volos
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Panathinaikos
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.