Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 17:00
Full timeNPS Volos 1:2 AEK Athens
AEK Athens were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 57%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was NPS Volos's attack: 1.39 xG against 0.87 projected (+0.52).
Goals
- 61' Luka Jović (pen.) AEK Athens · 0.82 xG chance 0–1
- 85' Georgios Charalampoglou NPS Volos · 0.16 xG chance 1–1
- 88' Luka Jović AEK Athens · 0.18 xG chance 1–2
The model against the result
- NPS Volos
- 16%
- Draw
- 27%
- AEK Athens
- 57% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
NPS Volos produced 0.52 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 12
- 11
- On target
- 4
- 2
- Inside the box
- 8
- 7
- xG per shot
- 0.12
- 0.18
- Open play xG
- 1.00
- 1.13
- Set-piece xG
- 0.42
- 0.04
- Penalties
- 0
- 1
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.39 for NPS Volos and 1.13 for AEK Athens.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
23 shots · 3.41 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- NPS Volos
- AEK Athens
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
0.84 xG created 1.49 xGA
- L 0.42 created, 1.40 conceded against Aris Thessaloniki
- L 1.34 created, 1.79 conceded against OFI Crete
- L 0.91 created, 1.40 conceded against OFI Crete
- D 1.19 created, 0.48 conceded against Iraklis 1908
- D 0.41 created, 1.62 conceded against Olympiacos FC
- L 0.76 created, 2.25 conceded against PS Kalamata
1.66 xG created 0.89 xGA
- D 1.02 created, 1.35 conceded against PAOK
- D 0.78 created, 0.62 conceded against Olympiacos FC
- W 2.06 created, 0.38 conceded against Iraklis 1908
- D 0.42 created, 1.11 conceded against AE Kifisia
- W 3.53 created, 0.40 conceded against Aris Thessaloniki
- D 2.17 created, 1.46 conceded against Asteras Aktor
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
4 opportunities flagged1 won3 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| NPS Volos to win | 9.00 | +40.6% | Lost |
| Draw | 4.75 | +28.4% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 2.05 | +9.3% | Won |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.08 | +4.3% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NPS Volos | 15.6% | 10.5% | +5.1 pp | 6.40 |
| Draw | 27.0% | 20.0% | +7.1 pp | 3.70 |
| AEK Athens | 57.4% | 69.5% | −12.2 pp | 1.74 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 53.3% | 45.3% | +8.0 pp | 1.88 |
| Both teams not to score | 46.7% | 54.7% | −8.0 pp | 2.14 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.5% | 76.6% | +0.9 pp | 1.29 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 22.5% | 23.4% | −0.9 pp | 4.45 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.7% | 54.6% | −4.9 pp | 2.01 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.3% | 45.4% | +4.9 pp | 1.99 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- NPS Volos sample
- 20 matches
- AEK Athens sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.