Sunday, 25/10/2026 at 19:00
21d 18h to kick-offOFI Crete – PAOK
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- OFI Crete
- 29%
- Draw
- 33%
- PAOK
- 38%
| OFI Crete | Draw | PAOK | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.49 | 3.02 | 2.61 |
- Total goals
- 2.29
- Over 2.5 goals
- 41%
- Both teams to score
- 52%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans PAOK
38% PAOK to win
- Attack
- 5th vs 9th
- PAOK attack v OFI Crete defence
- Defence
- 5th vs 11th
- PAOK defence v OFI Crete attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.72 vs -0.04
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.05 – 1.24
- OFI Crete v PAOK
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | OFI Crete | PAOK |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.04 · 9th | (better) 1.85 · 3rd |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.18 · 5th | 1.20 · 6th |
| xGD / match | -0.14 · 6th | (better) +0.65 · 4th |
| xPts / match | 1.22 · 8th | (better) 1.88 · 5th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.04 | (better) +0.72 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 38% of the model's distribution.
- PAOK clean sheet
- 32%
- PAOK 2+ goals
- 36%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 59%
- Both teams to score: no
- 48%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 17.1%
- 0:0
- 10.3%
- 0:1
- 10.2%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- OFI Crete sample
- 20 matches
- PAOK sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · OFI Crete
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · PAOK
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.